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Distribution spatiale et temporelle des coûts des politiques publiques de long terme sous incertitudes: théorie et pratique dans le cas de l'effet de serre

Abstract : Due to the combined inertia of the climatic and socio-economic systems, policymakers cannot avoid making early decisions on climate mitigation “in a sea of uncertainties”, even though the very legitimacy of economic analysis to address equity issues (who pays for climate mitigation, and when) faces widespread skepticism. This thesis aims at demonstrating that public economics remains a powerful tool to (i) assess the consistency of the various discourses relative to climate mitigation, (ii) provide robust insights into climate decisions, and thus (iii) try and put some rationale into the debate. We use a set of compact integrated climate policy optimization models to articulate and numerically assess the prominent issues at stake. Our analysis yields three main results. We first demonstrate that the trade-off between present and future efforts cannot be reduced to the controversy over the value of the discount rate. Under uncertainty, in fact, the margins of freedom we bequeath to future generations—notably the technical and institutional systems we transmit to them—prove more important for short-term decision than the value of the discount rate. Secondly, we model various quota allocation rules proposed in the literature to enlarge Annex B to developing economies, and show that their distributive outcome critically depends on ex ante assumptions about future economic and emissions growth. A careful design of the institutions surrounding the tradable permits market to smooth out sensitivity to economic and emissions paths is thus a necessary condition to enhance the system's negotiability and robustness. Last, this thesis illustrates the complementarity between ethics and economics: though economists do not have any particular legitimacy to say what is fair or just, their toolbox is powerful enough to show how intuitively appealing ideas—such as a zero discount rate to take care of both present and future generations alike, or an equal per capita allocation of emissions quota—may sometimes lead to very questionable outcomes.
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https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00000065
Contributor : Ecole Agroparistech <>
Submitted on : Monday, March 21, 2011 - 11:48:36 AM
Last modification on : Sunday, October 25, 2020 - 7:05:51 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, December 2, 2016 - 11:40:11 PM

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  • HAL Id : pastel-00000065, version 1

Citation

Franck Lecocq. Distribution spatiale et temporelle des coûts des politiques publiques de long terme sous incertitudes: théorie et pratique dans le cas de l'effet de serre. Planète et Univers [physics]. ENGREF (AgroParisTech), 2000. Français. ⟨pastel-00000065⟩

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