Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments (2 nd Ed, 1956. ,
Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence., Psychological Review, vol.98, issue.4, pp.506-528, 1991. ,
DOI : 10.1037/0033-295X.98.4.506
A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, 1957. ,
The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment., Psychological Bulletin, vol.118, issue.2, pp.248-271, 1995. ,
DOI : 10.1037/0033-2909.118.2.248
The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter.Guided Selection of Almanac Items, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol.57, issue.2, 1994. ,
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, 1982. ,
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511809477
Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, pp.427-442, 1999. ,
La modélisation des systèmes complexes, 1990. ,
Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation, Acta Psychologica, vol.40, issue.4, pp.287-298, 1976. ,
DOI : 10.1016/0001-6918(76)90032-9
La réforme du jugement, ou comment ne plus se tromper, 1993. ,
Biologie et connaissance, 1967. ,
The Foundations of statistics, 1954. ,
Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning, 1999. ,
Evidential impact of base rates Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, pp.153-160, 1982. ,
1759 : Candide, ou l'optimisme. Traduit de l'allemand de M. le docteur Ralph , avec les Additions qu'on a trouvées dans la poche du Docteur, lorsqu'il mourut à Minden, 1975. ,
Risky business, 2001. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00614230
La pr??vision du temps ?? moyenne ??ch??ance en france, La M??t??orologie, vol.8, issue.30, p.30, 2000. ,
DOI : 10.4267/2042/36124
Tubing: An Alternative to Clustering for the Classification of Ensemble Forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, vol.14, issue.5, 1999. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0741:TAATCF>2.0.CO;2
The Skill of Ensemble Prediction Systems, Monthly Weather Review, vol.127, issue.9, 1999. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1941:TSOEPS>2.0.CO;2
Psychological Dispositions and Trading Behaviour, Les cahiers recherche du Centre de Recherche en Gestion de Toulouse, 2002. ,
FORECASTS AND VERIFICATIONS IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA, Monthly Weather Review, vol.34, issue.1, pp.23-24, 1906. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1906)34<23:FAVIWA>2.0.CO;2
Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty, Cognition, vol.58, issue.1, pp.1-73, 1996. ,
DOI : 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8
Forecasting and verifying in a filed research project: DOPLIGHT '87. Weather and Forecasting, pp.97-109, 1989. ,
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, pp.422-444, 1982. ,
The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment., Psychological Bulletin, vol.118, issue.2, pp.248-271, 1995. ,
DOI : 10.1037/0033-2909.118.2.248
Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect., Psychological Review, vol.107, issue.2, pp.384-396, 2000. ,
DOI : 10.1037/0033-295X.107.2.384
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, 1982. ,
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511809477
Bayesian system for probabilistic river stage forecasting, Journal of Hydrology, vol.268, issue.1-4, 2002. ,
DOI : 10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00106-3
Why should a forecaster and a decision maker use Bayes Theorem, Water Resources Research, vol.108, issue.10, pp.327-336, 1983. ,
DOI : 10.1029/WR019i002p00327
Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, pp.427-442, 1999. ,
Local Climatic Guidance for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting, Monthly Weather Review, vol.125, issue.3, pp.305-316, 1997. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0305:LCGFPQ>2.0.CO;2
Training for calibration, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol.26, issue.2, pp.149-171, 1980. ,
DOI : 10.1016/0030-5073(80)90052-5
Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational behavior and human decision process, pp.98-114, 1977. ,
A model for assessment of weather forecasts, Australian Meteorological Magazine, vol.30, pp.291-303, 1982. ,
What is a good forecast ? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and forecasting, pp.281-293, 1993. ,
Probabilities, odds, and forecast of rare events, Weather and Forecasting, pp.302-307, 1991. ,
A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.12, issue.4, pp.595-600, 1973. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0595:ANVPOT>2.0.CO;2
Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment, Monthly Weather Review, vol.112, issue.3, pp.413-423, 1984. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<0413:IOFAEO>2.0.CO;2
Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results, Monthly Weather Review, vol.102, issue.11, pp.784-794, 1974. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0784:CITFSE>2.0.CO;2
Univers irrésolu, plaidoyer pour l'indéterminisme, (tr, Bouveresse) Hermann, 1984. ,
On Subjective Probability Forecasting, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.2, issue.2, pp.191-201, 1963. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0450(1963)002<0191:OSPF>2.0.CO;2
The Foundations of statistics, 1954. ,
Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.9, issue.2, pp.783-801209, 1971. ,
DOI : 10.1080/01621459.1967.10500894
Performance-based assessment of expertise: How to decide if someone is an expert or not, European Journal of Operational Research, vol.136, issue.2, pp.253-263, 2002. ,
DOI : 10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00113-8
Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: the roles of random error and ecological structure, Organizational behavior and human decision processes, pp.117-137, 1996. ,
Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning, 1999. ,
The Hard???Easy Effect in Subjective Probability Calibration, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol.67, issue.2, pp.201-221, 1996. ,
DOI : 10.1006/obhd.1996.0074
1759 : Candide, ou l'optimisme. Traduit de l'allemand de M. le docteur Ralph , avec les Additions qu'on a trouvées dans la poche du Docteur, lorsqu'il mourut à Minden, 1975. ,
Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment, Monthly Weather Review, vol.112, issue.3, pp.413-423, 1984. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<0413:IOFAEO>2.0.CO;2
Calibration of probabilities: the state of art to Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, pp.422-444, 1980. ,
Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning, 1999. ,
Training to improve calibration and discrimination: the effects of performance and environmental feedback, Organizational Behavior and human decision processes, pp.282-309, 2000. ,
An alternative metaphor in the study of judgment and choice: People as politicians, Theory and psychology, pp.451-475, 1991. ,
La réforme du jugement, ou comment ne plus se tromper, 1993. ,
Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments (2 nd Ed, 1956. ,
The Architecture of Language, 2000. ,
Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty, Cognition, vol.58, issue.1, pp.1-73, 1996. ,
DOI : 10.1016/0010-0277(95)00664-8
Forecasting and verifying in a filed research project: DOPLIGHT '87. Weather and Forecasting, pp.97-109, 1989. ,
Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.75, issue.4, pp.643-669, 1961. ,
DOI : 10.2307/1884324
Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.110, issue.3, pp.585-603, 1995. ,
DOI : 10.2307/2946693
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.395.8835
Ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and decision context. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, pp.476-498, 2002. ,
DOI : 10.1006/obhd.2001.2990
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.335.3955
Are clinitians correct when they believe they are correct? Implications for medical decision support, Medinfo, vol.10, issue.1, pp.454-458, 2001. ,
Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol.80, issue.3, pp.5-28, 1991. ,
DOI : 10.1007/BF00057884
From Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, 1921. ,
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511817410.005
La modélisation des systèmes complexes, pp.178-186, 1990. ,
Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, pp.427-442, 1999. ,
What is a good forecast ? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and forecasting, pp.281-293, 1993. ,
Probabilities, odds, and forecast of rare events, Weather and Forecasting, pp.302-307, 1991. ,
Probabilistic weather forecasting, LQ Probability, statistics and decision making in the atmospheric science, pp.337-377, 1985. ,
Impacts of Feedback and Experience on the Quality of Subjective Probability Forecasts. Comparison of Results from the First and Second Years of the Zierikzee Experiment, Monthly Weather Review, vol.112, issue.3, pp.413-423, 1984. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<0413:IOFAEO>2.0.CO;2
Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results, Monthly Weather Review, vol.102, issue.11, pp.784-794, 1974. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0784:CITFSE>2.0.CO;2
La réforme du jugement, ou comment ne plus se tromper, 1993. ,
Psychologie de l'intelligence, Armand Colin (Rééd, vol.239, 1947. ,
On Subjective Probability Forecasting, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.2, issue.2, pp.191-201, 1963. ,
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0450(1963)002<0191:OSPF>2.0.CO;2
The Foundations of statistics, 1954. ,
Who is rational? Studies of individual differences in reasoning, 1999. ,
Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, vol.16, issue.4, pp.781-789, 1990. ,
DOI : 10.1037/0096-1523.16.4.781
LDJUDPPHGHILDELOLWpSRXUOHVTXDQWLOHVHWIRXUQLVSDUOHV SUpYLVLRQQLVWHVG ¶(')'pELWVSUpYXVDX[[pFKpDQFHV--HW- )LJXUH5pVXOWDWGXWHVWGHFXOWXUHJpQpUDOHSRXUFKDFXQHGHVTXDWUHSRSXODWLRQV LQWHUURJpHV )LJXUH%LDLVGDQVOHVUpSRQVHVDXTXHVWLRQQDLUHGHFXOWXUHJpQpUDOHSRXUOHVTXDWUH SRSXODWLRQV(VWLPDWLRQ%D\pVLHQQHHWGHVLQFHUWLWXGHVDVVRFLpHVLQWHUYDOOHGH FRQILDQFHjjVXUE )LJXUH%LDLVGDQVOHVUpSRQVHVDXTXHVWLRQQDLUHGHFXOWXUHJpQpUDOHSRXUODD SRSXODWLRQIUDQoDLVHDJUpJpH(VWLPDWLRQ%D\pVLHQQHHWGHVLQFHUWLWXGHVDVVRFLpHV LQWHUYDOOHGHFRQILDQFHjjVXUE )LJXUH)RQFWLRQGHUpSDUWLWLRQG ¶XQHSUpYLVLRQ$1$/2* )LJXUH+LVWRJUDPPHGHODDIRQFWLRQGHGHQVLWpG ¶XQHSUpYLVLRQ$1$/2* )LJXUH(YROXWLRQGHODDODUJHXUGHVLQWHUYDOOHVGH--jj-3URGXFWLRQVHPL RSpUDWLRQQHOOHGHSUpYLVLRQVSUREDELOLVWHVjj, LJXUH3UREDELOLWpTTXHO ¶REVHUYpWRPEHGDQVO ¶,&VDFKDQWTXHFHOXLFLHVWODUJHRX pWURLW&RPSDUDLVRQGHVGHV,&OHVSOXVpWURLWVDYHFOHUHVWHGHO ¶pFKDQWLOORQ )LJXUH'pWHFWLRQSDUOHVH[SHUWVGHVSOXLHVLQWHQVHV!PPDYHFK G ¶DQWLFLSDWLRQ5qJOHGHGpFLVLRQEDVpHVRLWVXUOHTXDQWLOHVRLWVXUOHTXDQWLOH (QDEVFLVVHVOHWDX[[GHIDXVVHVDOHUWHV7)$HQRUGRQQpHOHWDX[[G ¶pYpQHPHQWV PDQTXpV7 ,