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Theses

Estimation de l'incertitude et prévision d'ensemble avec un modèle de chimie transport - Application à la simulation numérique de la qualité de l'air

Abstract : The thesis deals with the evaluation of a chemistry-transport model, not primarily with classical comparisons to observations, but through the estimation of its a priori uncertainties due to unput data, model formulation and numerical approximations. These three uncertainty sources are studied respectively on the basis of Monte Carlos simulations, multimodels simulations and numerical schemes inter-comparisons. A high uncertainty is found, in output ozone concentrations. In order to overtake the limitations due to the uncertainty, a solution is ensemble forecast. Through combinations of several models (up to forty-eight models) on the basis of past observations, the forecast can be significantly improved. The achievement of this work has also led to develop the innovative modelling-system Polyphemus.
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https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00001654
Contributor : Ecole Des Ponts Paristech <>
Submitted on : Thursday, June 8, 2006 - 8:00:00 AM
Last modification on : Friday, October 23, 2020 - 4:48:43 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 7:20:29 PM

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  • HAL Id : pastel-00001654, version 1

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Vivien Mallet. Estimation de l'incertitude et prévision d'ensemble avec un modèle de chimie transport - Application à la simulation numérique de la qualité de l'air. Mathématiques [math]. Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, 2005. Français. ⟨pastel-00001654⟩

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