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Essais sur la réforme des retraites , son impact sur la croissance et ses effets redistributifs.

Abstract : This dissertation analyses and assesses the macroeconomic impact of reforms of pay-as-you-go pension systems and their redistributive effects. Simulations relying on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations show that diminishing replacement rates or increasing the average effective age of retirement in line with life expectancy can result in an annual growth rate of the GDP per capita around 0.2% higher than in a scenario with only tax hikes balancing the system. Ranking the reform scenarios with similar favourable influence on growth requires taking account of their redistributive effects. Freezing the age of retirement in an ageing context triggers an intergenerational conflict among active individuals whereas increasing the age of retirement spreads the welfare cost of the reform more equally. On French data, a utilitarist social planner with moderate aversion to intergenerational inequality thus implements a reform increasing the age of retirement. A rise in the age ofretirement also allows for smaller intragenerational redistributive effects associated with differences in the level of income among individuals. Taking account of the impact of the reform on the welfare of the working poor individuals can influence the choice of the parameter (i.e., the tax rate or the replacement rate) complementing the rise in the age of retirement in order to balance the regime. Overall, on French data, this study advocates for a rise in the effective age of retirement of 1-1.5 year per decade and a graduaI fall in the replacement rate of 0.5 percentage point per year over the next 20 years.
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Submitted on : Thursday, July 29, 2010 - 1:33:31 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, January 23, 2019 - 10:29:08 AM
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  • HAL Id : pastel-00002415, version 1



Frédéric Gonand. Essais sur la réforme des retraites , son impact sur la croissance et ses effets redistributifs.. Sciences de l'Homme et Société. Ecole Polytechnique X, 2007. Français. ⟨pastel-00002415⟩



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