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Modélisation de la réponse à l'azote du rendement des grandes cultures et intégration dans un modèle économique d'offre agricole à l'échelle européenne. Application à l'évaluation des impacts du changement climatique

Caroline Godard
Abstract : Agriculture in today's Europe is evolving in a context where policy making and environmental concerns play a key role as well as questions being raised due to global warming. The AROPAj agricultural offer model already takes into account certain characteristics of animal farming. To better assess agri-environmental policies, this economic model needs to take into account the technical characteristics of crops in the individual production systems it is composed of. This thesis aims at setting up a method that takes into account agronomic techniques by modelling the relationship between yield and nitrogen fertilizing. In AROPAj, individual production systems (farm types) do not have a given location within a specified region and in data bases, technical information is scarce. The method involves determining technical and physical characteristics, inputs that allow the STICS crop model to assess the yield of each crop for each farm type. From this information, a nitrogen response curve can be drawn up for each crop of each one of the farms. The curve is based on an exponential function that integrates economic properties, and it is consistent from an agronomic point of view. It can take into account both nitrogen from marketed fertilizer and nitrogen from animal effluents produced on farm. Incorporated into the AROPAj economic model, the curves render the farms more sensitive to agricultural policy scenarios, by allowing the adjustment of their optimal fertilizing level. The method was designed to be adaptable to any European region, and tests carried out on two French regions covering a wide range of situations proved it to be robust. Simulations under future climate conditions were carried out based on climatic series from the Meteo-France ARPEGE-Climat model representing a scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In such climatic changes, and all other things equal, the range of nitrogen response curves obtained for a single crop of a single farm type, over thirty future years, is very wide. When all the modelled situations of differing crops and farm types were compiled, water, and not nitrogen, was shown to be the predominant production factor. It also shows that the altitude class of farms determines nitrogen response under future climatic conditions.
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Submitted on : Monday, April 14, 2008 - 8:00:00 AM
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Caroline Godard. Modélisation de la réponse à l'azote du rendement des grandes cultures et intégration dans un modèle économique d'offre agricole à l'échelle européenne. Application à l'évaluation des impacts du changement climatique. Humanities and Social Sciences. INAPG (AgroParisTech), 2005. English. ⟨NNT : 2005INAP0019⟩. ⟨pastel-00002852⟩

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