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Du besoin de financement à l'épargne de précaution : l'impact du risque sur les flux de capitaux et la croissance dans les pays émergents

Abstract : In this thesis, we study the impact of liquidity and production risk on the link between capital flows and growth on the one band, exchange rate policy and growth on the other. We can offer potential explanations for some empirical paradoxes in international finance: the allocation paradox and the paradox of exchange rate regimes. More specifically, the first paradox refers to the "perverse" relationship between growth and capital flows, while the second refers to the absence of a stable relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic performance. The first two chapters are devoted to the capital flows paradox. The first one attempts to explain how total factor productivity growth and capital outflows can be endogenously related. It can be applied to the recent global imbalances and the parallel growth in ernerging countries. In the second chapter, it is not the causality between flows and growth that is studied, but rather their consistency in the cross-country dimension when applying the growth accounting methodology. In both cases, the presence of non-incurable liquidity or production risk at the firm level explains the positive relationship between growth and capital outflows. Finally, the third chapter studies the choke of exchange rate regime and its impact on growth. The presence of liquidity risk and imperfect access to credit justify the idea that volatility can have an impact on growth. In particular, this chapter establishes theoretically and empirically that liability dollarization conditions that impact. This helps explain the lack of robustness in the previous empirical studies on that issue
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Submitted on : Tuesday, March 31, 2009 - 8:00:00 AM
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  • HAL Id : pastel-00004969, version 1



Kenza Benhima. Du besoin de financement à l'épargne de précaution : l'impact du risque sur les flux de capitaux et la croissance dans les pays émergents. Sciences de l'Homme et Société. ENSAE ParisTech, 2008. Français. ⟨NNT : 2008PA100115⟩. ⟨pastel-00004969⟩



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