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Mobilités et dynamiques salariales sur le marché du travail français

Abstract : This paper proposes to model labor market transitions accounting specifically for individual heterogeneity in the ability to accede to stable jobs. The model used is based on a Markovchain mixture of four types of transition dynamics: the stayers in stable-jobs, the stayers in nonparticipation, the unconfined movers, and the individuals stuck on confined states and who cannot accede to stable jobs. Conditional heterogeneity is allowed. The probabilities of being of a certain type depend on observable individual characteristics. Estimation is done focusing on a population already well inserted in the labor market but yet not ready to retire: men and women aged 30 to 49. Our main results are the following. Individuals trapped in confined mover histories represent 5% of the population under study (versus 13% apparently observed). Unconfined-mover dynamics depend on gender, whereas male and female confined movers cannot be proved to experience different dynamics. At equilibrium, an individual whose labor market history is generated by the confined mover process has between 3 and 4 times more chances to be unemployed than a confined mover. Participation, however, is not different across the two categories. The probability to be a confined mover decreases with the quality of education. For men, a high probability is also correlated with being single, and living in a distressed area
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Submitted on : Monday, April 27, 2009 - 8:00:00 AM
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  • HAL Id : pastel-00005067, version 1



Magali Ponçon Beffy. Mobilités et dynamiques salariales sur le marché du travail français. Sciences de l'Homme et Société. ENSAE ParisTech, 2008. Français. ⟨pastel-00005067⟩



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