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Prévision des crues au pas de temps horaire : pour une meilleure assimilation de l'information de débit dans un modèle hydrologique

Abstract : Rainfall-Runoff modelling belongs to the major tools for flood forecasting, as it allows to reach longer lead times than by many other methods. The hydrological community has developed numerous data assimilation techniques in order to improve on the forecast quality. In this study, we compared many methods which aim at updating a Rainfall-Runoff model at an hourly time step with lead times from one hour to a few days. All the tested techniques assimilate the streamflow measured at the catchment outlet. They update the model's states, parameters or outputs. Some are deterministic while others are probabilistic. This study highlighted the interaction between the structure of the hydrological model and the updates, both characterized by different dynamics. Hence considering the model as a whole seems more effective than considering it as the juxtaposition of a hydrological model followed by an updating procedure.We therefore advocate taking into account the updating techniques to be applied to the model when identifying its structure and calibrating it. The model which provides the best forecasts combines a hydrological structure and two updating methods. The flowchart is almost identical to the one optimized for the daily time step. The first update modifies one key model state, while the second one is an articifial neural network which predicts the remaining model error. This combination has been tested over a large data set of French watersheds. Its predictive performances are robust and compare favourably with those of other flood forecasting models.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, October 26, 2010 - 11:26:55 AM
Last modification on : Monday, June 21, 2021 - 11:34:02 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, January 27, 2011 - 2:50:03 AM


  • HAL Id : pastel-00529652, version 1



Lionel Berthet. Prévision des crues au pas de temps horaire : pour une meilleure assimilation de l'information de débit dans un modèle hydrologique. Hydrologie. AgroParisTech, 2010. Français. ⟨NNT : 2010AGPT0017⟩. ⟨pastel-00529652⟩



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