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Modélisation du fonctionnement de l'aquifère alluvial du fossé rhénan supérieur, vulnérabilité sous l'impact du changement climatique

Abstract : This Phd focuses on the hydrogeological modelling of the upper Rhine graben alluvial aquifer. This hydrosystem of regional importance is located in the French-German part of the Rhine basin. The aquifer is characterized by important river-aquifer interactions which have not been accurately quantified due to their high variations over space and time. The hydrogeological model developed with the MODCOU software includes the plain where the aquifer lies, as well as mountainous catchments characterized by heavy precipitations and subsurface flow towards the Rhine alluvial aquifer. The sensitivity of the model to several hydrodynamic parameters was tested, and statistical analysis of simulated and observed piezometric heads and river flows allowed estimating that rivers infiltration accounts for more than three quarters of the water table recharge. The impact of climate change on the functioning of the basin was then assessed using several general circulation models, SRES emission scenarios and hydrodynamic parameter sets. The climate projections show contrasted trends, which lead to a rather strong dispersion of river flows and piezometric levels responses. However there is a general decline of the aquifer recharge which increases by 2100. Changes in the seasonality of flow are rather homogeneous for all projections. The uncertainty analysis show that the hydrodynamic parameters explain only a small part of variance between models, and that the main sources of uncertainty are the climate models and emission scenarios.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, February 7, 2012 - 11:16:32 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, September 24, 2020 - 4:34:08 PM
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  • HAL Id : pastel-00667218, version 1

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Charlotte Thierion. Modélisation du fonctionnement de l'aquifère alluvial du fossé rhénan supérieur, vulnérabilité sous l'impact du changement climatique. Hydrologie. École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011ENMP0052⟩. ⟨pastel-00667218⟩

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