T. Ambrizzi, E. Souza, and R. Pulwarty, The hadley and walker regional circulations and associated enso impacts on south american seasonal rainfall. The Hadley Circulation : Present, Past, and Future, pp.203-235, 2004.

M. Ashfaq, C. Skinner, and N. Diffenbaugh, Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections, Climate Dynamics, vol.17, issue.4, pp.1-17, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-010-0875-2

M. Barreiro and A. Tippmann, Atlantic modulation of El Ni??o influence on summertime rainfall over southeastern South America, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.6, issue.16, pp.35-49, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL035019

V. Barros, M. Doyle, C. , and I. , Precipitation trends in southeastern South America: relationship with ENSO phases and with low-level circulation, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol.10, issue.1-2, pp.19-33, 2008.
DOI : 10.1007/s00704-007-0329-x

E. Berbery and V. Barros, The Hydrologic Cycle of the La Plata Basin in South America, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol.3, issue.6, pp.630-645, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0630:THCOTL>2.0.CO;2

E. Berbery and E. Collini, Springtime Precipitation and Water Vapor Flux over Southeastern South America, Monthly Weather Review, vol.128, issue.5, pp.1328-1346, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1328:SPAWVF>2.0.CO;2

E. H. Berbery, S. Dias, M. A. Baethgen, W. Barros, V. Collischonn et al., La plata basin (lpb) continental scale experiment implementation plan, pp.15-27, 2005.

W. Cai, A. Sullivan, T. Cowan, J. Ribbe, and G. Shi, Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: A relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.26, issue.D14, pp.38-111, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2010GL046242

W. Cai, P. Van-rensch, T. Cowan, and H. Hendon, Teleconnection Pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian Rainfall, Journal of Climate, vol.24, issue.15, p.112, 2011.
DOI : 10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1

S. Cerne and C. Vera, Influence of the intraseasonal variability on heat waves in subtropical South America, Climate Dynamics, vol.7, issue.1, pp.2265-2277, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-010-0812-4

S. Chan, S. Behera, Y. , and T. , Indian Ocean Dipole influence on South American rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.34, issue.21, pp.14-26, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL034204

R. Chaves and P. Nobre, Interactions between sea surface temperature over the South Atlantic Ocean and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.C8, pp.320410-320456, 2004.
DOI : 10.1029/2003GL018647

T. Chen, S. Weng, and S. Schubert, Maintenance of Austral Summertime Upper-Tropospheric Circulation over Tropical South America: The Bolivian High???Nordeste Low System, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.56, issue.13, pp.2081-2100, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<2081:MOASUT>2.0.CO;2

W. Chen, Z. Jiang, L. Li, Y. , and P. , Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario in southeast China, Climate Dynamics, vol.19, issue.4, pp.1-17, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-010-0910-3

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01120105

C. Chou and J. Neelin, Mechanisms of Global Warming Impacts on Regional Tropical Precipitation*, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.13, pp.2688-2701, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2688:MOGWIO>2.0.CO;2

J. Christensen, B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao et al., Regional climate projections, climate change, 2007 : The physical science basis. contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, p.71, 2007.

F. Codron and R. Sadourny, Saturation limiters for water vapour advection schemes: impact on orographic precipitation, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol.10, issue.13, pp.338-349, 2002.
DOI : 10.3402/tellusa.v54i4.12148

E. Collini, E. Berbery, V. Barros, and M. Pyle, How Does Soil Moisture Influence the Early Stages of the South American Monsoon?, Journal of Climate, vol.21, issue.2, pp.195-213, 2008.
DOI : 10.1175/2007JCLI1846.1

M. Collins, S. An, W. Cai, A. Ganachaud, E. Guilyardi et al., The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Ni??o, Nature Geoscience, vol.22, issue.6, pp.391-397, 2010.
DOI : 10.1038/ngeo868

M. Doyle and V. Barros, Midsummer Low-Level Circulation and Precipitation in Subtropical South America and Related Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the South Atlantic, Journal of Climate, vol.15, issue.23, pp.3394-3410, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3394:MLLCAP>2.0.CO;2

E. Villar, J. Ronchail, J. Guyot, J. Cochonneau, G. Naziano et al., Spatio-temporal rainfall variability in the amazon basin countries (brazil, peru, bolivia, colombia, and ecuador), International Journal of Climatology, issue.11, pp.291574-1594, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00760034

S. Figueroa, P. Satyamurty, and D. Da-silva, Simulations of the Summer Circulation over the South American Region with an Eta Coordinate Model, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.52, issue.10, pp.1573-1584, 1995.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1573:SOTSCO>2.0.CO;2

R. Fu and W. Li, The influence of the land surface on the transition from dry to wet season in Amazonia, Theoretical and applied climatology, pp.97-110, 2004.
DOI : 10.1007/s00704-004-0046-7

A. Gandu and P. Dias, Impact of tropical heat sources on the South American tropospheric upper circulation and subsidence, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.53, issue.A, pp.6001-6015, 1998.
DOI : 10.1029/97JD03114

R. Garreaud, M. Vuille, R. Compagnucci, and J. Marengo, Present-day South American climate, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, vol.281, issue.3-4, pp.180-195, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.palaeo.2007.10.032

G. Gastineau, L. Treut, H. , L. , and L. , Hadley circulation changes under global warming conditions indicated by coupled climate models, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol.117, issue.65, pp.863-884, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GL023684

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01332182

G. Gastineau, L. Li, L. Treut, and H. , The Hadley and Walker Circulation Changes in Global Warming Conditions Described by Idealized Atmospheric Simulations, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.14, pp.3993-4013, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JCLI2794.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01332190

W. Gates, AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.73, issue.12, pp.97-126, 1992.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<1962:ATAMIP>2.0.CO;2

A. Gill, Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.100, issue.449, pp.447-462, 1980.
DOI : 10.1002/qj.49710644905

F. Giorgi, Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. part i : observations. Climate Dynamics, pp.675-691, 2002.

A. Grimm, V. Barros, D. , and M. , Climate Variability in Southern South America Associated with El Ni??o and La Ni??a Events, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.1, pp.35-58, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0035:CVISSA>2.0.CO;2

A. Grimm, J. Pal, G. , and F. , Connection between Spring Conditions and Peak Summer Monsoon Rainfall in South America: Role of Soil Moisture, Surface Temperature, and Topography in Eastern Brazil, Journal of Climate, vol.20, issue.24, pp.5929-5945, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/2007JCLI1684.1

A. Grimm and M. Zilli, Interannual Variability and Seasonal Evolution of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in South America, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.9, pp.2257-2275, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI2345.1

E. Guilyardi, El Ni??o???mean state???seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble, Climate Dynamics, vol.115, issue.4, pp.329-348, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-005-0084-6

E. Hawkins and R. Sutton, The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.90, issue.8, pp.1095-1107, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

I. Held and B. Soden, Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.21, pp.5686-5699, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3990.1

J. Hoffman, Maps of mean temperature and precipitation. Climatic Atlas of South America, pp.1-28, 1975.

F. Hourdin, I. Musat, S. Bony, P. Braconnot, F. Codron et al., The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Climate Dynamics, vol.19, issue.16, pp.27787-813, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-006-0158-0

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00113202

G. Huffman, D. Bolvin, R. Adler, . Ncdc, and N. Asheville, last updated 2011 : Gpcp version 2.2 combined precipitation data set, 2011.

S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis et al., Summary for Policymakers In : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, vol.25, issue.26, pp.15-29, 2007.

I. James, Introduction to circulating atmospheres, Cambridge Univ Pr, pp.15-41, 1995.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511622977

C. Junquas, C. Vera, L. Li, L. Treut, and H. , Summer precipitation variability over southeastern south america in a global warming scenario. Climate Dynamics, in press :1? 17, pp.52-95, 2011.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01115796

E. Kalnay, M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven et al., The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.77, issue.3, pp.437-471, 1996.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2

D. Karoly, Southern Hemisphere Circulation Features Associated with El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation Events, Journal of Climate, vol.2, issue.11, pp.1239-1252, 1989.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1239:SHCFAW>2.0.CO;2

R. Knutti, The end of model democracy ? Climatic change, pp.1-10, 2010.

Y. Kodama, Large-scale common features of subtropical precipitation zones (the baiu frontal zone, the spcz, and the sacz). i : Characteristics of subtropical frontal zones, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, vol.70, issue.64, pp.813-836, 1992.

T. Krishnamurti, M. Kanamitsu, W. Koss, L. , and J. , Tropical East???West Circulations During the Northern Winter, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.30, issue.5, pp.780-787, 1973.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1973)030<0780:TECDTN>2.0.CO;2

J. Labraga, O. Frumento, and M. López, The Atmospheric Water Vapor Cycle in South America and theTropospheric Circulation, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.11, pp.1899-1915, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1899:TAWVCI>2.0.CO;2

J. Leloup, Influence du changement climatique sur les caractéristiques d'ENSO par méthodes neuronales, pp.167-83, 2006.

W. Li and R. Fu, Transition of the Large-Scale Atmospheric and Land Surface Conditions from the Dry to the Wet Season over Amazonia as Diagnosed by the ECMWF Re-Analysis, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.13, pp.2637-2651, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2637:TOTLAA>2.0.CO;2

Z. Li, Ensemble Atmospheric GCM Simulation of Climate Interannual Variability from 1979 to 1994, Journal of Climate, vol.12, issue.4, pp.986-1001, 1979.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0986:EAGSOC>2.0.CO;2

B. Liebmann, C. Vera, L. Carvalho, I. Camilloni, M. Hoerling et al., An Observed Trend in Central South American Precipitation, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.22, pp.4357-4367, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/3205.1

P. Lorenz and D. Jacob, Influence of regional scale information on the global circulation: A two-way nesting climate simulation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.114, issue.18, pp.18706-92, 2005.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GL023351

J. Lu, G. Vecchi, and T. Reichler, Expansion of the hadley cell under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.34, issue.106805, pp.107-109, 2007.

N. Mantua, S. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. Wallace, and R. Francis, A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.78, issue.6, pp.1069-1080, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

J. Marengo, B. Liebmann, A. Grimm, V. Misra, S. Dias et al., Recent developments on the South American monsoon system, International Journal of Climatology, vol.87, issue.21, pp.34-64, 2010.
DOI : 10.1002/joc.2254

J. Marengo, W. Soares, C. Saulo, and M. Nicolini, Climatology of the Low-Level Jet East of the Andes as Derived from the NCEP???NCAR Reanalyses: Characteristics and Temporal Variability, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.12, pp.2261-2280, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2261:COTLJE>2.0.CO;2

O. Marti, P. Braconnot, J. Bellier, R. Benshila, S. Bony et al., The new ipsl climate system model : Ipsl- cm4.no. 26. institut pierre simon laplace des sciences de l'environnement global, paris, pp.92-96, 2006.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421338

G. Meehl, C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. Mcavaney et al., THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.88, issue.9, pp.1383-1394, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383

K. Mo, Relationships between Low-Frequency Variability in the Southern Hemisphere and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Journal of Climate, vol.13, issue.20, pp.3599-3610, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3599:RBLFVI>2.0.CO;2

J. Nogués-paegle and K. Mo, Alternating Wet and Dry Conditions over South America during Summer, Monthly Weather Review, vol.125, issue.2, pp.279-291, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0279:AWADCO>2.0.CO;2

J. Paegle and K. Mo, Linkages between Summer Rainfall Variability over South America and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Journal of Climate, vol.15, issue.12, pp.1389-1407, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1389:LBSRVO>2.0.CO;2

J. Peixoto and A. Oort, Physics of climate, p.36, 1992.

S. Philander, El Niño, La Niña, and the southern oscillation, Academic Pr, vol.46, pp.46-47, 1990.

E. Rasmusson, ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND THE WATER BALANCE OF NORTH AMERICA: PART I. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WATER VAPOR FLUX FIELD, Monthly Weather Review, vol.95, issue.7, pp.403-426, 1967.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1967)095<0403:AWVTAT>2.3.CO;2

D. Rind and J. Perlwitz, The response of the hadley circulation to climate changes, past and future. The Hadley Circulation : Present, Past, and Future, pp.399-435, 2004.

A. Robertson and C. Mechoso, Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, Monthly Weather Review, vol.128, issue.8, pp.2947-2957, 2000.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<2947:IAIVOT>2.0.CO;2

M. Rodwell and B. Hoskins, Subtropical Anticyclones and Summer Monsoons, Journal of Climate, vol.14, issue.15, pp.3192-3211, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3192:SAASM>2.0.CO;2

G. Roe, OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, vol.33, issue.1, pp.645-671, 2005.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.earth.33.092203.122541

URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.524.951

N. Saji, B. Goswami, P. Vinayachandran, Y. , and T. , A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, vol.63, issue.6751, pp.360-363, 1999.
DOI : 10.1038/43854

P. Salio, M. Nicolini, and A. Saulo, Chaco low-level jet events characterization during the austral summer season, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.101, issue.10, pp.4816-4855, 2002.
DOI : 10.1029/2001JD001315

W. Schwerdtfeger, World survey of climatology volume 12 : climates of Central and South America, p.132, 1976.

G. Silva, T. Ambrizzi, and J. Marengo, Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability, Annales geophysicae, pp.645-657, 2009.
DOI : 10.5194/angeo-27-645-2009

A. Simmons, S. Uppala, D. Dee, and S. Kobayashi, Era-interim : New ecmwf reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ecmwf, shinfield park, pp.25-28, 2006.

A. Sörensson, C. Menéndez, P. Samuelsson, U. Willén, and U. Hansson, Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model, Climatic Change, vol.19, issue.D20, pp.429-447, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-009-9740-x

H. Tanaka, N. Ishizaki, and A. Kitoh, Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, vol.70, issue.115, pp.250-269, 2004.
DOI : 10.3402/tellusa.v56i3.14410

G. Van-oldenborgh, S. Philip, C. , and M. , El Ni??o in a changing climate: a multi-model study, Ocean Science, vol.1, issue.2, pp.81-95, 2005.
DOI : 10.5194/os-1-81-2005

G. Vecchi and B. Soden, Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation, Journal of Climate, vol.20, issue.17, pp.4316-4340, 2007.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI4258.1

G. Vecchi, B. Soden, A. Wittenberg, I. Held, A. Leetmaa et al., Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing, Nature, vol.19, issue.7089, pp.73-76, 2006.
DOI : 10.1038/nature04744

C. Vera, J. Baez, M. Douglas, C. Emmanuel, J. Marengo et al., The South American Low-Level Jet Experiment, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.87, issue.1, pp.63-78, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-87-1-63

C. Vera, W. Higgins, J. Amador, T. Ambrizzi, R. Garreaud et al., Toward a Unified View of the American Monsoon Systems, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.20, pp.4977-5000, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3896.1

C. Vera and G. Silvestri, Precipitation interannual variability in south america from the wcrp-cmip3 multi-model dataset. Climate dynamics, pp.1003-1014, 2009.

C. Vera, G. Silvestri, V. Barros, and A. Carril, Differences in El Ni??o Response over the Southern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, vol.17, issue.9, pp.1741-1753, 2004.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1741:DIENRO>2.0.CO;2

C. Vera, G. Silvestri, B. Liebmann, and P. González, Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.17, issue.13, pp.13707-13741, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2006GL025759

C. Vera, P. Vigliarolo, and E. Berbery, Cold Season Synoptic-Scale Waves over Subtropical South America, Monthly Weather Review, vol.130, issue.3, pp.684-699, 2002.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0684:CSSSWO>2.0.CO;2

H. Virji, A Preliminary Study of Summertime Tropospheric Circulation Patterns over South America Estimated from Cloud Winds, Monthly Weather Review, vol.109, issue.3, pp.599-610, 1981.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0599:APSOST>2.0.CO;2

R. Wu and B. Kirtman, Regimes of seasonal air???sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations, Climate Dynamics, vol.17, issue.4, pp.393-410, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-007-0246-9

P. Xie and P. Arkin, Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.78, issue.11, pp.2539-2558, 1997.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2

J. Zhou and K. Lau, Does a Monsoon Climate Exist over South America?, Journal of Climate, vol.11, issue.5, pp.1020-1040, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1020:DAMCEO>2.0.CO;2