Estimation des incertitudes et prévision des risques en qualité de l'air

Abstract : This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we need to build an ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically built. Then, these generated ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or has good resolution and reliability of probabilistic forecasts. Thus, this work show that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve reliability related to the threshold exceedance prediction. This approach is compared with Monte Carlo ensemble calibration. This ensemble is less representative of uncertainty. Finally, we can estimate the part of the measure error, representativity error and modeling error in air quality
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Damien Garaud. Estimation des incertitudes et prévision des risques en qualité de l'air. Sciences de la Terre. Université Paris-Est, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011PEST1162⟩. ⟨pastel-00679178⟩

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