Modélisation prospective et analyse spatio-temporelle : intégration de la dynamique du réseau électrique

Abstract : A reliable power supply is crucial for operating power systems. Defined as the ability of power systems to lock back into a steady-state condition after sudden disturbance (e.g. load or production fluctuations), reliability is usually ensured through appropriate management of voltage and frequency and involves events whose time scales range from a few milliseconds to a few hours. However, energy planning models, which focus on power systems' long-term development (typically several decades), largely ignore reliability requirements and may consequently provide unrealistic options in this area. Yet this aspect is of tremendous importance, especially when high shares of renewable energy sources, and in particular intermittent energy sources, are expected in electricity production and may threaten supply reliability. To overcome this drawback, we propose assessing the reliability of supply when evaluating power systems' long-term development. We achieve a global description of power systems relying on variational principles deduced from thermodynamics. The approach provides two reliability indicators related to the dynamic properties of the whole system, namely the magnetic and kinetic reserves available in the system, thus quantifying in an original way the reliability of power supply for a given production mix. The relevance of the indicators is demonstrated through a prospective analysis of Reunion Island, which is targeting an electricity production mix with 100% renewable energy sources by 2030. We use a TIMES model to provide the electricity sector's responses to this scenario and to different assumptions. Results show that the levels of magnetic and kinetic reserves decrease with the integration of renewable energy sources, and that the levels of the reserves are critically low during the day, when intermittent energy sources can represent up to two thirds of the electricity production. This work thereby illustrates how we can use the two indicators to debate the most appropriate conditions for ensuring the reliability of supply, and makes it possible to choose between the targets of decarbonizing the electricity mix and maintaining an expected level of reliability.
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Mathilde Drouineau. Modélisation prospective et analyse spatio-temporelle : intégration de la dynamique du réseau électrique. Energie électrique. École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011ENMP0104⟩. ⟨pastel-00731894⟩



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