Appréciation quantitative des risques pour l'évaluation de mesures de maîtrise sanitaire dans une filière agro-alimentaire. Application à Clostridium perfringens en restauration hospitalière

Abstract : In this study, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed in order to propose control measures making it possible to reach some `risk based' targets. A survey, carried out in an hospital, made it possible to describe a food chain, from raw material until consumption, of two beef-in-sauce products, such as to predict the evolution of Clostridium perfringens along the whole process using predictive microbiology tools. In the exposure assessment model, we described Clostridium perfringens germination, outgrowth and growth in a first model, applied on two process steps, and final thermal inactivation of Clostridium perfringens vegetative cells in a second model. Then, in order to estimate the risk of diarrhea after the consumption of the two products, we established a dose response model. In order to predict in our model the full range of possible outcomes, we aimed at describing, in each proposed model, the variability on the modelled biological response using meta analysis data, obtained on various experimental conditions. Performing Bayesian inference on these published data, we separated variability and uncertainty, according to recommendations of international organizations. Second order Monte Carlo simulations on the whole process made it possible to estimate the mean risk of diarrhea after to the consumption of the products and to estimate the uncertainty on this median risk. Based on these simulations, two key steps for food safety were then identified in the process, leading us to propose, for each step, control measures and to measure their efficacy.
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Séverine Sevrin-Jaloustre. Appréciation quantitative des risques pour l'évaluation de mesures de maîtrise sanitaire dans une filière agro-alimentaire. Application à Clostridium perfringens en restauration hospitalière. Sociologie. AgroParisTech, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011AGPT0059⟩. ⟨pastel-00781728⟩

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