Propagation d'incertitudes et analyse de sensibilité pour la modélisation de l'infiltration et de l'érosion

Abstract : We study parametric uncertainty propagation and quantification in hydrological models for the simulation of infiltration and erosion processes in the presence of rainfall and/or runoff. Uncertain input parameters are treated in a probabilistic framework, considering them as independent random variables defined by a fixed probability density function. This probabilistic modeling is based on a literature review to identify the range of variation of input parameters. The output statistical analysis is realized by Monte Carlo sampling and by polynomial chaos expansions. Our analysis aims at quantifying uncertainties in model outputs and establishing a hierarchy within input parameters according to their influence on output variability by means of global sensitivity analysis. The first application concerns the variability and spatial localization of the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity in the Green-Ampt infiltration model at different spatial and temporal scales. Our main conclusion is the importance of the soil saturation state. The second application deals with the Harisine--Rose erosion model. One conclusion is that the parametric interactions are not significant in the rainfall detachment model, but they prove to be important in the runoff detachment model
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Marie Rousseau. Propagation d'incertitudes et analyse de sensibilité pour la modélisation de l'infiltration et de l'érosion. Mathématiques générales [math.GM]. Université Paris-Est, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012PEST1101⟩. ⟨pastel-00788360⟩

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