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Introduction de non linéarités et de non stationnarités dans les modèles de représentation de la demande électrique résidentielle

Abstract : In this dissertation, we focus on the estimation of the impacts in terms of power demand caused by the technological and behavioural breaks that will affect the domestic sector in the future. These deep changes are not measured in the existing panels and the estimation is required for prospective (long-term) studies. To evaluate the very likely modifications of the domestic power demand that will follow previous influences, a bottom-up, technically-explicit and aggregative model is needed. This one aims at reconstituting the electric residential load curve according to a non-trending manner. Thanks to it, various evolution scenarios can be simulated. The purpose of this PhD is the elaboration of such a model.A functional analysis was carried out to build up a new method to reconstitute the domestic electric load curve. Since the clarifying of the diversity represents one of the key points of our research, we decided to begin the modelling task with focus on it. More precisely, we elaborated a stochastic algorithm whose purpose is the realistic starting of domestic appliances. Some application cases have been tested. We studied the diversity affecting aggregated power demand and we propose a new methodology able to visualise and to analyse it. This method is based on a distance adapted to the load curve. Finally we tried to identify human behaviour concerning the use of appliances thanks to load curve classifications.
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Submitted on : Thursday, April 25, 2013 - 5:12:11 PM
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2013ENMP0002.pdf
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  • HAL Id : pastel-00817969, version 1

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Arnaud Grandjean. Introduction de non linéarités et de non stationnarités dans les modèles de représentation de la demande électrique résidentielle. Energie électrique. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2013. Français. ⟨NNT : 2013ENMP0002⟩. ⟨pastel-00817969⟩

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