Development of a systemic risk management approach for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects

Abstract : This thesis is concerned with understanding the risks associated with the development of CTSC (Capture, Transport & Storage of CO2) projects up to industrial scales. CTSC projects are complex sociotechnical systems for which a systemic risk management approach is required. The approach has to cover different aspects of risk in order to analyze how dynamics of risks affect dynamics of projects. A systemic risk management framework is proposed based on the concepts of systems thinking, STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes), developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and system dynamics. The objective is to model and analyze the safety control structure involved in a CTSC project. Safety control structure is the organizational structure of stakeholders (controllers) who are responsible for maintaining safety constraints. The goal of safety control structure in this work is to prevent CTSC project delay or failure. This goal has been rephrased as definition and treatment of major risks that could avoid maintaining safety constraints. The risks have been firstly identified and classified in eight main categories including Technical, HSE (Health, Safety and Environment), Policy/Strategy, Legal, Organizational/Human, Financial/Economic, Social and Project. The major risks related to the phases prior to engineering have been extracted and modeled by the proposed methodology. Feedback networks affecting the amplification of each risk have been studied. Safety control structures, context and associated risks of Barendrecht, Lacq and Weyburn projects have been analyzed in order to propose a generic safety control model for CTSC projects. Emphasis is placed on the significance of finding endogenous explanations for the failure of CTSC projects. The model highlights the flow of information and communication among stakeholders leading to improve their mental models and decisions.
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Jaleh Samadi. Development of a systemic risk management approach for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects. Other. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2012. English. ⟨NNT : 2012ENMP0095⟩. ⟨pastel-00870894⟩

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