Evaluation économique de l'impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : étude théorique et application au cas de la Tunisie

Abstract : The literature is not unanimous as for the effect of the climatic change on developing countries. Indeed, if several studies conclude that the agriculture of developing countries is vulnerable to the climatic change because of the predominance of weak capital agriculture, others suggest that climate change will be benefit to agriculture. This thesis has for objective to study the impact of the climate change on the Tunisian agriculture while using an analysis ricardienne of the agricultural value added. We execute a spatiotemporal analysis of the answer of the agricultural value added to the climate change on a relative data base of 21 governates of Tunisia that covers the period 1992-2007. On the basis of results of evaluation of this analysis, we proceed to a simulation of the impact of the climate change on agriculture relatively on the projections of a moderate scenario on the 2020 horizon. Results suggest that the climate change combined to an evolution of the technological level would have some beneficial effects on the Tunisian agriculture. This result would put back in question findings of the existing study that insist on the negative effects of the climatic change on agriculture.
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Aida Nefzi-Bouzidi. Evaluation économique de l'impact du changement climatique sur l'agriculture : étude théorique et application au cas de la Tunisie. Ecologie, Environnement. AgroParisTech, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012AGPT0024⟩. ⟨pastel-01056525⟩

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