Changements structurels et dynamiques spatiales des exploitations laitières

Abstract : Structural change in French dairy sector is one of the most important in agriculture with high rates of decreasing in the number of farms and increasing average farm size. This structural change is heterogeneous in space; the regions the most affected are those which are not traditional dairy producing. The regions which resist are the traditional dairy ones where dairying is highly developed. Agricultural policy instruments (dairy quota, price support, direct payments…) have affected those changes while trying to maintain the dairy production on a large part of France. The modifications to come of those instruments could modify the dairy farm location and structure. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the determinants of dairy farm growth and location, to identify which are those they foster growth and agglomeration of dairy farms and those they tend to slow down this growth and disperse dairy farms. To do so, we firstly estimate, using the non stationary Markov model, the impact of some economic and policy factors on the size farm distribution. Secondly, by means of the methods of spatial econometrics, we introduce a spatial dimension in this analysis to deal with regional differences and detect a possible effect of agglomeration externalities. Thirdly, we integrate a spatial dynamic recursive component to the non stationary Markov model. This allows us to model the effects of factors influencing the number, the size and the location of the dairy farms and to take account of interaction between locations. Those different methods allow us to show that agglomeration externalities are very important in the determination of the farm location as well as the growth of farm size. Pecuniary externalities and forward and backward linkages as well as the market prices are also determinant factors affecting farm structure and location. Agricultural policies, namely second pillar direct payments have a rather low impact in the structural adjustment of dairy farms. However subsidies to installation of young farmers are highly significant and positively related to farm growth and location. Environmental stringency seems to negatively affect dairy farm location and especially medium and large sized ones. Other livestock activities seem to compete with dairy farms especially smaller ones.
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Nejla Ben Arfa. Changements structurels et dynamiques spatiales des exploitations laitières. Economies et finances. AgroParisTech, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011AGPT0049⟩. ⟨pastel-01057230⟩

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