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Theses

Assimilation de données photochimiques et prévision de la pollution troposphérique

Abstract : The Chemistry-Transport Models (CTM) are now sufficiently efficient to simulate realistic photochemical pollutant concentrations. Nevertheless, the complexity of involved processes and the temporal and spatial variability of the emission sources make it impossible to perfectly
reproduce pollutant concentrations. If an intrinsic parameter or an input is not well described, A huge error results. CHIMERE is a CTM which covers the major part of Europe with a resolution of about fifty kilometers. It offers the possibilty to zoom and simulate pollutant concentrations in a more detailed way over some key regions, such as Ile-de-France and the Berre and Marseille regions.

We present results of a comparison of the continental and regional simulations with surface observations and aircraft measurements from the ESQUIF campagne (Etude et Simulation de la QUalité de l'Air en Ile-de-France). This comparison allows us to quantify the total error made in ozone and nitrogen dioxyde concentrations. We also present different methods (e.g. Statistical Interpolation and Kriging) we have tested and adapted to the pollution case in order to correct this error. We compare the methods and show in an objective way that it is possible to obtain more realistic three-dimensional maps of pollutants (e.g. analyses) by combining both simulations and surface
observations.

A series of real time experiements realized in the PIONEER project show that the forecast error may propagate from one region to another. The european scale ozone analyses are thus used to reinitialize the forecast model. The aim is then to answer the question of whether it possible to
improve short time forecasts by using better initial values instead of the forecasts for the day before.
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https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00003337
Contributor : Nadège Blond <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 11:27:42 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, October 14, 2020 - 3:57:51 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, September 12, 2012 - 10:30:18 AM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00003337, version 1

Citation

Nadège Blond. Assimilation de données photochimiques et prévision de la pollution troposphérique. Physique [physics]. Ecole Polytechnique X, 2002. Français. ⟨tel-00003337⟩

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