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Le coût des dommages dus aux inondations : Estimation et analyse des incertitudes

Abstract : Among all effects of river flooding, flood risk policies aim at reducing the inconvenients to people, damage to goods, and disturbance of activities. These damages depend on a natural hazard, possibly modified by human activity, as well as on flood-prone capital and on resources mobilized against flooding effects.
The first part of this dissertation outlines a conceptual framework for damage assessment as a decision making contribution, taking into consideration the economic aspects of risks and uncertainty.
The second part deals with the primary level of individual housing, based on surveys performed with flooded households in various areas. Floodplain occupancy is analysed and the human factor is considered with regards to flood hazard, stressing on responses to flood warning and water rise. These responses and their impacts on damages are considered through data analysis techniques, using other significant variables.
The third part of the dissertation deals with damage modelling and assessment on a flood-prone area. According to a conceptual framework, a computerized model is defined and developped for flood damage cost assessment on a single sector. This local model uses all available information and expertise, within an explicit description. It is applied to 245 sectors, using a data base generated on large valleys of the Loire River basin. A simulation procedure is developped for analyzing uncertainties on cost assessment, and the contributions of the various uncertainty sources. At regional scale, damage assessment is considered with regards to spatial scale of flood events and of uncertainty sources.
Finally, the fourth part outlines some conclusions on the methods developped and gives further research directions.
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Contributor : Jean Philippe Torterotot Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Sunday, October 4, 2009 - 10:45:09 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 19, 2022 - 10:17:39 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Tuesday, June 15, 2010 - 9:08:13 PM


  • HAL Id : tel-00421862, version 1



Jean Philippe Torterotot. Le coût des dommages dus aux inondations : Estimation et analyse des incertitudes. domain_other. Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, 1993. Français. ⟨tel-00421862⟩



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