Offre agricole Européenne et changement climatique : une exploration régionale des enjeux liés aux changements d’échelle par la modélisation intégrée

Abstract : Agriculture, and the climate system are closely linked: agricultural systems are driven by changes in mean climate and its variability, while their expansion and intensification contribute to the anthropogenic perturbation of the climate system. The evolution of the climate-agriculture system relies on numerous processes, which extend over a wide large range of temporal and spatial scale, and are intertwined. It is necessary to integrate these processes across scales in order to both reduce the uncertainty that overshadow the evolution of the system, and help clever decision making. In this work, I focused on that integration goal in the specific case of Europe for short-term time scales in a future horizon. I focused on typical spatial scales of decision making: from the smallest decision unit in agriculture (farm scale) to the one of policy making regarding agriculture-climate interactions (Europe). I continued the development of a modelling framework relying on the coupling of a microeconomic model of European agricultural supply (AROPAj) to a generic crop model (STICS), which account for adequate processes at farm scale, and for the factors that drive the heterogeneity in their net effects over Europe. This tool allowed me to highlight the specific role of farm-scale adaptations in the response of European agricultural supply to climate change. In particular, accounting for these processes alters the usual picture of climate change impacts over Europe. I further developed analytical methods building on agronomic and statistic knowledge to explore the heterogeneity in the response of major European crops, among geographical locations, species, and climate change scenarios. Finally, first results showed that at the farm scale, little interaction is expected between the adaptation to climate change and the implementation of a greenhouse gas mitigation policy targeting the agricultural sector.
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David Leclere. Offre agricole Européenne et changement climatique : une exploration régionale des enjeux liés aux changements d’échelle par la modélisation intégrée. Ecologie, Environnement. AgroParisTech, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012AGPT0048⟩. ⟨tel-01127645⟩

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