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Theses

Changements de comportements de mobilité automobile

Abstract : This thesis rises in a context where the automobile supremacy is questioned. It aims at analysing behavioural changes related to the deployment of solutions to pool car, in order to foresee evolution of its modes of use, intensity of use, as well as that of motorization. First, we identify new car mobility services as main vectors of changes in behaviours, we also measure the potential development of carpooling (important), carsharing and short-term car rental (limited), and we end up by showing that these services can achieve energy savings if used as substitute to individual equipment. In a second step, we focus on the analysis of mobility patterns from which we establish a behaviour classification highlighting their main drivers. From these, the estimation of a modal choice model shows that shifts from personal car toward public transport or shared car are likely to 2020, in the case of a decrease in households' motorization level. Thus, we finally analyse the evolution of households' motorization and emphasis a breaking point in the positive generational trends observed in the past, that will know a stagnation if not an inversion to 2020. As a consequence, the evolution of the French car market will tend to be more driven by sales to fleet and business than sales to private.
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  • HAL Id : tel-01141809, version 2

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Amandine Chevalier. Changements de comportements de mobilité automobile. Economies et finances. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2014. Français. ⟨NNT : 2014ENMP0033⟩. ⟨tel-01141809v2⟩

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