Thermosensibilité de la demande électrique : identification de la part non linéaire par couplage d'une modélisation bottom-up et de l'approche bayésienne

Abstract : The growing heat pump market contributes to the increase in temperature sensitivity of electricity demand. It becomes necessary to understand the impact of temperature sensitive end-uses of electricity, including those which are correlated non-linearly to the outside temperature. In this context, this thesis aims to build a modeling framework to i) analyze the influencing factors of the temperature sensitivity of electricity demand from a physical description of temperature-sensitive equipment, and ii) to perform diagnoses of these parameters of influence by taking into account the associated uncertainties. A hybrid modeling approach that benefits the advantages of statistical models and physical models is used to answer these questions.Firstly, the temperature-sensitive part of electricity demand is estimated by a predictive top-down model. Then a physical model to analyze the temperature sensitivity at regional level is developed based on building thermal energy needs. A regional coefficient of performance (COP) is determined for the whole installed heat pumps by using pseudo-physical models which are regressed on manufacturer data or actual performance measures. Finally, the parameters of influence of the developed temperature sensitivity model are estimated using the Bayesian approach which provides a framework for the treatment of uncertainty in the form of probabilities. Equivalent coefficients of heat loss, an equivalent internal temperature, as well as the share of Joule heating and the share of heat pumps for the regional building stock are obtained.
Document type :
Theses
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [133 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01142341
Contributor : Abes Star <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, April 15, 2015 - 8:02:13 AM
Last modification on : Monday, November 12, 2018 - 10:56:50 AM
Long-term archiving on : Monday, September 14, 2015 - 8:50:27 AM

File

2014ENMP0050.pdf
Version validated by the jury (STAR)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : tel-01142341, version 1

Collections

Citation

Özlem Özkizilkaya. Thermosensibilité de la demande électrique : identification de la part non linéaire par couplage d'une modélisation bottom-up et de l'approche bayésienne. Energie électrique. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2014. Français. ⟨NNT : 2014ENMP0050⟩. ⟨tel-01142341⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

630

Files downloads

1044