Agricultures' adaptation to water management policies and global change : the interest of economic programming models

Abstract : This thesis develops and discusses agricultural-supply modeling approaches for representing the adaptation of farming to global changes and water policies: their effects on agricultural economics and water resources comprise critical information for decision makers. After a summary and a review chapter, four essays are presented. The first essay describes a representation of the behavior of ten typical farms using a risk linear programming model connected to a plant-soil-hydrodynamic model chain, to assess the future level of nitrate contamination in the upper Rhine valley aquifer. The baseline, liberal, and interventionist scenarios for 2015 all result in lower nitrate concentrations. The second essay explores the effects of the economic uncertainty of global changes by means of a Monte Carlo approach distinguishing various levels of dependence on uncertain parameters. Analyses for a nitrate-oriented and a water-use model (in Alsace and southwestern France) show that the environmental objectives can be targeted withsufficient confidence. The third essay develops a flexible specification for positive mathematical programming - constant elasticity of substitution with decreasing returns - to explore how irrigated farming adapts to increased water scarcity in Beauce, France. The possibility of adjusting the application of water per hectare accounts for about 20% of the response. The last essay presents the development of a holistic hydro-economic model of Beauce’s agriculture and aquifer under climate-change uncertainty, so as to evaluate various water policies, as well as the open-access case, up to the year 2040. The results show that the baseline policy is more cost-effective than the other instruments tested (tax, transfer,etc.).
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Nina Graveline. Agricultures' adaptation to water management policies and global change : the interest of economic programming models. Economics and Finance. AgroParisTech, 2013. English. ⟨NNT : 2013AGPT0091⟩. ⟨tel-01155334⟩

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