Processus de formation et d'étalement des nuages sur l'île de la Réunion : caractérisation à partir de données issues d'observations satellite, sol et du modèle numérique de prévision AROME ; application à la prévision des énergies solaires.

Abstract : The last decade has seen new methods to produce energy such as solar or wind power. They are more and more used in power production especially on Reunion island. In order to better take into account the solar power production, it is important to improve the storage capabilities as well as the integration of this intermittent energy. Furthermore, the solar forecasting must be improved to optimised cells uses. Different tools can be used: weather forecasting models, satellites imageries, meteorological ground stations. This thesis aims to study the spatial and temporal cloudiness over Reunion island as well as solar ressource. In the first part, we identified the physical processes and parameters which play key roles in cloud life cycle. To do so, we describe the global and local atmospheric physics especially in the tropic. In the second part, we discussed the evaluation of tool. The main tool correspond to the meso-scale numerical weather forecast model, AROME (Application de la recherche à l'opérationnelle à méso-échelle), developped by Météo-France. We validated it using meteorological ground stations and ERA-Interim reanalyses from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) in order to validate wind and temperature at different scales. Meteosat7 satellite data are used to estimate the solar forcasting and the shape and localisation of clouds. This study gave information of spatial and temporal variability of cloud to produce cloudy patterns. The last part is dedicated to the study of clouds life cycle divided into three parts: (1) the study of cloud formation during the night; (2) the study of cloud formation and evolution during the day in relation with the night clouds patterns; (3) the study of clouds spreading on two parts of the island, in the West and the North. To conclude, we discussed the uncertainties of solar forecast based on previous studies.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 - 2:48:24 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 - 3:38:34 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-01215009, version 1

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Natacha Kalecinski. Processus de formation et d'étalement des nuages sur l'île de la Réunion : caractérisation à partir de données issues d'observations satellite, sol et du modèle numérique de prévision AROME ; application à la prévision des énergies solaires.. Physique [physics]. Ecole Polytechnique, 2015. Français. ⟨tel-01215009⟩

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