Développement de méthodes spatio-temporelles pour la prévision à court terme de la production photovoltaïque

Abstract : The evolution of the global energy context and the challenges of climate change have led to anincrease in the production capacity of renewable energy. Renewable energies are characterized byhigh variability due to their dependence on meteorological conditions. Controlling this variabilityis an important challenge for the operators of the electricity systems, but also for achieving the Europeanobjectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energies in EU energy consumption. In the case of photovoltaics (PV), the control of the variability of the production requires to predict with minimum errors the future production of the power stations. These forecasts contribute to increasing the level of PV penetration and optimal integration in the power grid, improving PV plant management and participating in electricity markets. The objective of this thesis is to contribute to the improvement of the short-term predictability (less than 6 hours) of PV production. First, we analyze the spatio-temporal variability of PV production and propose a method to reduce the nonstationarity of the production series. We then propose a deterministic prediction model that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations between the power plants of a spatial grid. The power stationsare used as a network of sensors to anticipate sources of variability. We also propose an automaticmethod for selecting variables to solve the dimensionality and sparsity problems of the space-time model. A probabilistic spatio-temporal model has also been developed to produce efficient forecasts not only of the average level of future production but of its entire distribution. Finally, we propose a model that exploits observations of satellite images to improve short-term forecasting of PV production.
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Xwégnon Agoua. Développement de méthodes spatio-temporelles pour la prévision à court terme de la production photovoltaïque. Energie électrique. PSL Research University, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PSLEM066⟩. ⟨tel-01878943⟩

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