Solar energy forecasting and resource assessment, 2013. ,
Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration, Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, vol.39, issue.6, pp.535-576, 2013. ,
, International energy agency. World energy statistics
, United Nations. Convention-cadre sur les changements climatiques
, International energy agency. Renewables energy statistics
, LOI n 2015-992 du 17 août 2015 relative à la transition énergétique pour la croissance verte, 2015.
, Direction générale de l'énergie et du climat. Programmation pluriannuelle de l'énergie période, 2009.
Building a Smarter Smart Grid Through Better Renewable Energy Information, Proceedings of Power Systems Conference and Exposition, 2009. ,
Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol.22, issue.3, pp.1148-1156, 2007. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617685
Renewable Energy Forecasting : From Models to Applications, p.6, 2017. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01542722
, Review of photovoltaic power forecasting. Solar Energy, vol.136, pp.78-111, 2016.
Assessment of forecasting techniques for solar power production with no exogenous inputs, Solar Energy, vol.86, issue.7, pp.2017-2028, 2012. ,
Solar power forecasting performance-towards industry standards, 1st International Workshop on the Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, 2011. ,
The weather intelligence for renewable energies. benchmarking exercise on short-term forecasting of wind and solar power generation. Energies, vol.8, pp.9594-9619, 2015. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01199212
A benchmark of statistical regression methods for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic electricity production, part I : Deterministic forecast of hourly production, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.792-803, 2014. ,
A benchmark of statistical regression methods for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic electricity production. Part II : Probabilistic forecast of daily production, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.804-816, 2014. ,
Numerical Weather Prediction, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.59, issue.1, pp.5-17, 1978. ,
Solar and photovoltaic forecasting through post-processing of the Global Environmental Multiscale numerical weather prediction model, Progress in Photovoltaics : Research and Applications, vol.21, issue.3, pp.284-296, 2013. ,
Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US, Solar Energy, vol.84, issue.12, pp.2161-2172, 2010. ,
Forecasting solar radiation-Preliminary evaluation of an approach based upon the national forecast database, Solar Energy, vol.81, issue.6, pp.809-812, 2007. ,
Comparison of eight clear sky broadband models against 16 independent data banks, Solar Energy, vol.80, issue.4, pp.468-478, 2006. ,
On the clear sky model of the esra-european solar radiation atlas-with respect to the heliosat method, Solar Energy, vol.68, issue.1, pp.33-48, 2000. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00361373
Simplified clear sky model for direct and diffuse insolation horizontal surfaces, 1981. ,
The interrelationship and characteristic distribution of direct, diffuse and total solar radiation, Solar Energy, vol.4, pp.1-19, 1960. ,
Solar radiation and the duration of sunshine, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.80, issue.344, pp.231-235, 1954. ,
Online short-term solar power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.83, issue.10, pp.1772-1783, 2009. ,
DOI : 10.1016/j.solener.2009.05.016
URL : http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/126769008/Manuscript.pdf
KPV : A clear-sky index for photovoltaics, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.679-693, 2014. ,
DOI : 10.1016/j.solener.2014.04.019
Time series analysis, vol.2, 1994. ,
Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, vol.2, issue.1, pp.2-10, 2009. ,
Bengt Perers, and Henrik Aalborg Nielsen. A nonparametric method for correction of global radiation observations, Solar Energy, vol.88, pp.13-22, 2013. ,
Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity, Energies, vol.6, issue.5, 2013. ,
DOI : 10.3390/en6052624
URL : https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/5/2624/pdf
Analog method for collaborative very-short-term forecasting of power generation from photovoltaic systems, Next Generation Data Mining Summit (NGDM'11), 2011. ,
Local and regional photovoltaic power prediction for large scale grid integration : Assessment of a new algorithm for snow detection, Progress in Photovoltaics : Research and Applications, vol.20, pp.760-769, 2012. ,
Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead prediction of photovoltaic power generation, Solar Energy, vol.134, pp.132-146, 2016. ,
Photovoltaic power forecasting using statistical methods : impact of weather data, IET Science, Measurement Technology, vol.8, issue.3, pp.90-97, 2014. ,
Neural Networks : A Comprehensive Foundation, 1998. ,
Application of Neural Network to One-Day-Ahead 24 hours Generating Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic System, International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems, pp.1-6, 2007. ,
Forecasting power output for grid-connected photovoltaic power system without using solar radiation measurement, The 2nd International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems, pp.773-777, 2010. ,
DOI : 10.1109/pedg.2010.5545754
A physical hybrid artificial neural network for short term forecasting of pv plant power output, Energies, vol.8, issue.2, 2015. ,
Comparative study of power forecasting methods for PV stations, 2010 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON), pp.1-6, 2010. ,
, Short-term power forecasting system for photovoltaic plants. Renewable Energy, vol.44, pp.311-317, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.renene.2012.01.108
A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network : Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy. Solar Energy, vol.84, issue.5, pp.807-821, 2010. ,
Short-term forecasting of power production in a large-scale photovoltaic plant, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.401-413, 2014. ,
ANN-based scenario generation methodology for stochastic variables of electric power systems, Electric Power Systems Research, vol.134, pp.9-18, 2016. ,
An Introduction to Support Vector Machines : And Other Kernel-based Learning Methods, 2000. ,
Use of support vector regression and numerically predicted cloudiness to forecast power output of a photovoltaic power plant in Kitakyushu, Japan. Progress in Photovoltaics : Research and Applications, vol.20, issue.7, pp.874-882, 2012. ,
Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning, Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Smart Grid Communications, 2011. ,
Analysis and synthesis of the variability of irradiance and PV power time series with the wavelet transform, Solar Energy, vol.85, issue.1, pp.188-197, 2011. ,
Forecasting power output of photovoltaic system based on weather classification and support vector machine, 2011 IEEE Industry Applications Society Annual Meeting (IAS), pp.1-6, 2011. ,
Short-term predictability of photovoltaic production over Italy, vol.80, pp.197-204, 2015. ,
A hybrid model (SARIMA-SVM) for short-term power forecasting of a small-scale grid-connected photovoltaic plant, Solar Energy, vol.98, pp.226-235, 2013. ,
Machine learning for solar irradiance forecasting of photovoltaic system, vol.90, pp.542-553, 2016. ,
A semi-empirical approach using gradient boosting and-nearest neighbors regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic solar power forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.1081-1086, 2016. ,
A Novel Evolution Kalman Filter Algorithm for Short-Term Climate Prediction, Asian Journal of Control, vol.18, issue.1, pp.400-405, 2016. ,
Quantile Regression, 2005. ,
Forecasting wind power quantiles using conditional kernel estimation, vol.80, pp.370-379, 2015. ,
Very Short-Term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation #x2014 ; With Application to Solar Energy, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.31, issue.5, pp.3850-3863, 2016. ,
Irradiance prediction intervals for PV stochastic generation in microgrid applications, Solar Energy, vol.139, pp.116-129, 2016. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02066049
Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function, Energy, vol.114, pp.498-512, 2016. ,
An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast, Applied Energy, vol.157, pp.95-110, 2015. ,
GEFCom2014 : Probabilistic solar and wind power forecasting using a generalized additive tree ensemble approach, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.1087-1093, 2016. ,
Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance, vol.101, pp.526-536, 2017. ,
An application of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for short-term solar power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.133, pp.437-450, 2016. ,
Ensemble forecasting of solar irradiance by applying a mesoscale meteorological model, Solar Energy, vol.136, pp.597-605, 2016. ,
Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models, Solar Energy, vol.133, pp.55-72, 2016. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01310208
Nonparametric short-term probabilistic forecasting for solar radiation, Solar Energy, vol.133, pp.465-475, 2016. ,
DOI : 10.1016/j.solener.2016.04.011
Joint Probability Distribution and Correlation Analysis of Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection, Journal of Energy Engineering, vol.141, issue.1, p.4014008, 2015. ,
Probabilistic analysis of weather data for a hybrid solar/wind energy system, International Journal of Energy Research, vol.35, issue.3, pp.221-232, 2011. ,
Probabilistic Forecast of PV Power Generation Based on Higher-Order Markov Chain, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, issue.99, pp.1-1, 2016. ,
Shortterm probabilistic forecasting of wind speed using stochastic differential equations, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.981-990, 2016. ,
, Probabilistic Forecasts of Solar Irradiance by Stochastic Differential Equations, 2013.
Forecasting power output of solar photovoltaic system using wavelet transform and artificial intelligence techniques, Procedia Computer Science, vol.12, pp.332-337, 2012. ,
A BayesianBased Approach for a Short-Term Steady-State Forecast of a Smart Grid, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.4, issue.4, pp.1760-1771, 2013. ,
A Bayesian-Based Approach for a Short-Term Steady-State Forecast of a Smart Grid, Proceedings of IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, 2009. ,
Short-term spatiotemporal prediction of wind speed and direction, Wind Energy, vol.17, issue.12, pp.1945-1955, 2014. ,
Spatio-temporal propagation of wind power prediction errors, Wind Energy, vol.16, issue.7, pp.999-1012, 2013. ,
DOI : 10.1002/we.1527
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00723820
Spatio-temporal analysis and modeling of short-term wind power forecast errors, Wind Energy, vol.14, issue.1, pp.43-60, 2011. ,
DOI : 10.1002/we.401
URL : http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/6380046/tastuetal09_rev.pdf
Spatio-temporal Complementarity between Solar and Wind Power in the Iberian Peninsula, Energy Procedia, vol.40, pp.48-57, 2013. ,
Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation Accounting for Geographically Dispersed Information. Smart Grid, IEEE Transactions on, vol.5, issue.1, pp.480-489, 2014. ,
A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Approach for Short-Term Forecast of Wind Farm Generation. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol.29, issue.4, pp.1611-1622, 2014. ,
Spatial Statistics and Spatio-Temporal Data, 2011. ,
Evaluation of spatio-temporal forecasting methods in various smart city applications, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol.82, pp.424-435, 2018. ,
Improving the spatio-temporal distribution of surface solar radiation data by merging ground and satellite measurements, Remote Sensing of Environment, vol.114, issue.11, pp.2692-2704, 2010. ,
Cloud motion vectors from a network of ground sensors in a solar power plant, Solar Energy, vol.95, pp.13-20, 2013. ,
Cloud speed impact on solar variability scalingApplication to the wavelet variability model, Solar Energy, vol.91, pp.11-21, 2013. ,
Cloud-tracking methodology for intra-hour DNI forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.102, pp.2-10, 2014. ,
Comparison of global horizontal irradiance forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models with different spatio-temporal resolutions, Progress in Photovoltaics : Research and Applications, vol.24, issue.12, pp.1626-1640, 2016. ,
Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model, vol.72, pp.291-300, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01086935
A Spatiotemporal Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model for Solar Radiation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), vol.57, issue.3, pp.343-355, 2008. ,
Solar irradiance forecasting using spatial-temporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging, Renewable Energy, vol.60, pp.235-245, 2013. ,
Models for solar radiation prediction based on different measurement sites, Measurement, vol.63, pp.346-363, 2015. ,
A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data, vol.87, pp.15-30, 2016. ,
Compressive Spatio-Temporal Forecasting of Meteorological Quantities and Photovoltaic Power, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, issue.99, pp.1-1, 2016. ,
Multitime-Scale Data-Driven Spatio-Temporal Forecast of Photovoltaic Generation, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, vol.6, issue.1, pp.104-112, 2015. ,
Intra-hour forecasts of solar power production using measurements from a network of irradiance sensors, Solar Energy, vol.97, pp.58-66, 2013. ,
A novel ARX-based multi-scale spatio-temporal solar power forecast model, 2012 North American Power Symposium (NAPS), pp.1-6, 2012. ,
Generation and evaluation of space-time trajectories of photovoltaic power, Applied Energy, vol.176, pp.80-91, 2016. ,
Improving Renewable Energy Forecasting with a Grid of Numerical Weather Predictions, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, issue.99, pp.1-1, 2017. ,
Probabilistic solar power forecasting in smart grids using distributed information, International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol.72, pp.16-23, 2015. ,
Quantifying PV power Output Variability, Solar Energy, vol.84, issue.10, pp.1782-1793, 2010. ,
A simple model for estimating the transmittance of direct solar radiation through clear atmospheres. Solar Energy, vol.18, pp.129-134, 1976. ,
Testing for Unit Roots in Seasonal Time Series, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.79, issue.386, pp.355-367, 1984. ,
Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order, Biometrika, vol.71, issue.3, pp.599-607, 1984. ,
The Interpretation of Statistical Maps, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), vol.10, issue.2, pp.243-251, 1948. ,
Spatial autocorrelation of ecological phenomena, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.14, issue.1, pp.22-26, 1999. ,
Random Forests, Machine Learning, vol.45, pp.5-32, 2001. ,
Random Forests and Adaptive Nearest Neighbors, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.101, issue.474, pp.578-590, 2006. ,
Regression Shrinkage and Selection Via the Lasso, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, vol.58, pp.267-288, 1994. ,
, R : A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2014.
Statistical models approach for solar radiation prediction, 2013 IEEE International Instrumentation and Measurement Technology Conference (I2MTC), pp.1734-1739, 2013. ,
A suite of metrics for assessing the performance of solar power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.111, pp.157-175, 2015. ,
Effect of dust, humidity and air velocity on efficiency of photovoltaic cells, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol.16, issue.5, pp.2920-2925, 2012. ,
On the temperature dependence of photovoltaic module electrical performance : A review of efficiency/power correlations, Solar Energy, vol.83, issue.5, pp.614-624, 2009. ,
, ECMWF. Medium-range forecasts, 2017.
Atmospheric model high resolution 10-day forecast (hres, 2017. ,
Spatial-temporal solar power forecast through use of Gaussian Conditional Random Fields, IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM), pp.1-5, 2016. ,
K-nearest neighbors and a kernel density estimator for GEFCom2014 probabilistic wind power forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.1074-1080, 2016. ,
Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, 1986. ,
Variable Kernel Density Estimation, The Annals of Statistics, vol.20, issue.3, pp.1236-1265, 1992. ,
Kernel Smoothing, 1994. ,
Multivariate Density Estimation : Theory, Practice, and Visualization, Google-Books-ID : XZ03BwAAQBAJ, 2015. ,
A bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation of functions of random variables, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol.47, issue.1, pp.49-62, 2004. ,
A fast and objective multidimensional kernel density estimation method : fastKDE, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol.101, pp.148-160, 2016. ,
Cross-validation Bandwidth Matrices for Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, vol.32, issue.3, pp.485-506, 2005. ,
La régression quantile en pratique. Document de travail INSEE, 2013. ,
Elements of information theory, 1991. ,
Probabilistic Short-term Wind Power Forecasting for the Optimal Management of Wind Generation, IEEE Lausanne Power Tech, pp.683-688, 2007. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00222776
, R : A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2014.
Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems, Weather and Forecasting, vol.15, issue.5, pp.559-570, 2000. ,
Solar irradiance estimation from geostationary satellite data : I. Statistical models. Solar Energy, vol.51, pp.449-456, 1993. ,
Solar irradiance estimation from geostationary satellite data : II. Physical models. Solar Energy, vol.51, pp.457-465, 1993. ,
A new operational model for satellite-derived irradiances : description and validation, Solar Energy, vol.73, issue.5, pp.307-317, 2002. ,
Solar energy assessment using remote sensing technologies, Remote Sensing of Environment, vol.86, issue.3, pp.423-432, 2003. ,
The method Heliosat-2 for deriving shortwave solar radiation from satellite images, Solar Energy, vol.77, issue.2, pp.159-169, 2004. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00361364
Computing global and diffuse solar hourly irradiation on clear sky. Review and testing of 54 models, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Flavius Iacobescu, Ioan Milos, and Costel Rada, vol.16, pp.1636-1656, 2012. ,
, Preliminary survey on site-adaptation techniques for satellite-derived and reanalysis solar radiation datasets, Solar Energy, vol.132, pp.25-37, 2016.
Short-term solar power forecasting based on satellite images, pp.179-198, 2017. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01542855
A hybrid approach to estimate the complex motions of clouds in sky images, Solar Energy, vol.138, pp.10-25, 2016. ,
Satellite image analysis and a hybrid ESSS/ANN model to forecast solar irradiance in the tropics, Energy Conversion and Management, vol.79, pp.66-73, 2014. ,
Extracting cloud motion vectors from satellite images for solar power forecasting, 2014 IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, pp.4123-4126, 2014. ,
Cloud detection, classification and motion estimation using geostationary satellite imagery for cloud cover forecast, Energy, vol.55, pp.853-859, 2013. ,
An evolutionary artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating hourly direct normal irradiances from meteosat imagery, Energy, pp.264-273, 2015. ,
Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary satellites data, Solar Energy, vol.102, pp.131-142, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00932955
Hybrid solar forecasting method uses satellite imaging and ground telemetry as inputs to, ANNs. Solar Energy, pp.176-188, 2013. ,
Solar Power Prediction Based on Satellite Images and Support Vector Machine, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, vol.7, issue.3, pp.1255-1263, 2016. ,
Comparing support vector regression for PV power forecasting to a physical modeling approach using measurement, numerical weather prediction, and cloud motion data, Solar Energy, vol.135, pp.197-208, 2016. ,
Use of satellite data to improve solar radiation forecasting with Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks, Solar Energy, vol.122, pp.1309-1324, 2015. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01232089
Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting, Renewable Energy, pp.599-610, 2016. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01334564
The HelioClim Project : Surface Solar Irradiance Data for Climate Applications, Remote Sensing, vol.3, issue.2, pp.343-361, 2011. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00566995
SoDa : a Web service on solar radiation, PSE GmbH, vol.3, pp.3-9809656, 2004. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00465551
Characterizing measurements campaigns for an innovative calibration approach of the global horizontal irradiation estimated by HelioClim-3. Renewable Energy, vol.57, pp.339-347, 2013. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00799172
Preliminary assessment of a new SoDa service for real-time estimates and shortterm forecasts of the solar radiation, 15th EMS Annual Meeting / 12th ECAM, USKKey, p.335, 2015. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01202638
HC-1+HC-3" a long-term data set of daily solar radiation at surface, EMS Annual Meeting, 2017. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01583336
Nowcasting and very short term forecasting of the global horizontal irradiance at ground level : application to photovoltaic output forecasting, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01130251
Multivariate Spatial Correlation : A Method for Exploratory Geographical Analysis, Geographical Analysis, vol.17, issue.4, pp.263-283, 1985. ,
Etude des méthodes de point intérieur appliquées à la programmation linéaire et à la programmation semidéfinie ,
Linear Programming and Extensions, 1991. ,
Goodness of Fit and Related Inference Processes for Quantile Regression, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.94, issue.448, pp.1296-1310, 1999. ,
Building a smarter smart grid through better renewable energy information, Proceedings of Power Systems Conference and Exposition, 2009. ,
Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.22, issue.3, pp.1148-1156, 2007. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617685
Stochastic control of smart home energy management with plug-in electric vehicle battery energy storage and photovoltaic array, Journal of Power Sources, vol.333, pp.203-212, 2016. ,
,
Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration, Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, vol.39, issue.6, pp.535-576, 2013. ,
Solar power forecasting performances-towards industry standards, Proceedings of 1st International Workshop on the Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems, 2011. ,
Forecasting power output of photovoltaic system based on weather classification and support vector machine, Industry Applications Society Annual Meeting (IAS), pp.1-6, 2011. ,
Use of support vector regression and numerically predicted cloudiness to forecast power output of a photovoltaic power plant in kitakyushu, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol.20, pp.874-882, 2012. ,
Predicting solar generation from weather forecasts using machine learning, Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Smart Grid Communications, 2011. ,
Analysis and synthesis of the variability of irradiance and {PV} power time series with the wavelet transform, Solar Energy, vol.85, issue.1, pp.188-197, 2011. ,
A benchmark of statistical regression methods for shortterm forecasting of photovoltaic electricity production, part i: Deterministic forecast of hourly production, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.792-803, 2014. ,
Online shortterm solar power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.83, issue.10, pp.1772-1783, 2009. ,
A nonparametric method for correction of global radiation observations, Solar Energy, vol.88, pp.13-22, 2013. ,
Assessment of forecasting techniques for solar power production with no exogenous inputs, Solar Energy, vol.86, issue.7, pp.2017-2028, 2012. ,
Short-term power forecasting model for photovoltaic plants based on historical similarity, Energies, vol.6, issue.5, p.2624, 2013. ,
Analog method for collaborative very-short-term forecasting of power generation from photovoltaic systems ,
Local and regional photovoltaic power prediction for large scale grid integration: Assessment of a new algorithm for snow detection, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol.20, pp.760-769, 2012. ,
Application of neural network to one-dayahead 24 hours generating power forecasting for photovoltaic system, Proceedings of the International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems, 2007. ,
Comparative study of power forecasting methods for pv stations, Proceedings of the International Conference on Power System Technology, 2010. ,
Forecasting power output for grid-connected photovoltaic power system without using solar radiation measurement, Proceedings of the IEEE International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems, 2010. ,
Short-term power forecasting system for photovoltaic plants, Renewable Energy, vol.44, pp.311-317, 2012. ,
A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected {PV} plant at trieste, italy, Solar Energy, vol.84, issue.5, pp.807-821, 2010. ,
European geosciences union general assembly 2013, egudivision energy, resources & the environment, ere spatio-temporal complementarity between solar and wind power in the iberian peninsula, Energy Procedia, vol.40, pp.48-57, 2013. ,
Short-term spatiotemporal prediction of wind speed and direction, Wind Energy, vol.17, issue.12, pp.1945-1955, 2014. ,
Spatio-temporal analysis and modeling of short-term wind power forecast errors, Wind Energy, vol.14, issue.1, pp.43-60, 2011. ,
,
Spatio-temporal propagation of wind power prediction errors, Wind Energy, vol.16, issue.7, pp.999-1012, 2013. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00723820
A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Approach for Short-Term Forecast of Wind Farm Generation, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.29, issue.4, pp.1611-1622, 2014. ,
Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation Accounting for Geographically Dispersed Information, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.5, issue.1, pp.480-489, 2014. ,
, Spatial Statistics and Spatio-Temporal Data, 2011.
Cloud motion vectors from a network of ground sensors in a solar power plant, Solar Energy, vol.95, pp.13-20, 2013. ,
Cloud speed impact on solar variability scaling application to the wavelet variability model, Solar Energy, vol.91, pp.11-21, 2013. ,
Cloud-tracking methodology for intra-hour {DNI} forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.102, pp.267-275, 2014. ,
Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US, Solar Energy, vol.84, issue.12, pp.2161-2172, 2010. ,
A Spatiotemporal Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model for Solar Radiation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), vol.57, issue.3, pp.343-355, 2008. ,
Solar irradiance forecasting using spatialtemporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging, Renewable Energy, vol.60, pp.235-245, 2013. ,
Compressive SpatioTemporal Forecasting of Meteorological Quantities and Photovoltaic Power, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, issue.99, pp.1-1, 2016. ,
Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model, Renewable Energy, vol.72, pp.291-300, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01086935
Intra-hour forecasts of solar power production using measurements from a network of irradiance sensors, Solar Energy, vol.97, pp.58-66, 2013. ,
A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data, Renewable Energy, vol.87, pp.15-30, 2016. ,
Multitime-Scale Data-Driven SpatioTemporal Forecast of Photovoltaic Generation, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, vol.6, issue.1, pp.104-112, 2015. ,
Spatio-temporal models for photovoltaic power short-term forecasting, Solar Integration workshop 2015, 2015. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01220321
Probabilistic solar power forecasting in smart grids using distributed information, International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol.72, pp.16-23, 2015. ,
A simple model for estimating the transmittance of direct solar radiation through clear atmospheres, Solar Energy, vol.18, pp.129-134, 1976. ,
,
Building a smarter smart grid through better renewable energy information, 2009. ,
, IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition, pp.1-5, 2009.
Trading Wind Generation From Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.22, issue.3, pp.1148-1156, 2007. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00617685
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications, 2017. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01542722
Review of photovoltaic power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.136, pp.78-111, 2016. ,
Solar photovoltaic generation forecasting methods: A review, Energy Conversion and Management, vol.156, pp.459-497, 2018. ,
A benchmark of statistical regression methods for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic electricity production, part I: Deterministic forecast of hourly production, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.792-803, 2014. ,
An application of the ecmwf ensemble prediction system for short-term solar power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.133, pp.437-450, 2016. ,
Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead prediction of photovoltaic power generation, Solar Energy, vol.134, pp.132-146, 2016. ,
Ensemble forecasting of solar irradiance by applying a mesoscale meteorological model, Solar Energy, vol.136, pp.597-605, 2016. ,
An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast, Applied Energy, vol.157, pp.95-110, 2015. ,
A benchmark of statistical regression methods for short-term forecasting of photovoltaic electricity production. Part II: Probabilistic forecast of daily production, Solar Energy, vol.105, pp.804-816, 2014. ,
GEFCom2014: Probabilistic solar and wind power forecasting using a generalized additive tree ensemble approach, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.1087-1093, 2016. ,
A semi-empirical approach using gradient boosting and-nearest neighbors regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic solar power forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.1081-1086, 2016. ,
Irradiance prediction intervals for PV stochastic generation in microgrid applications, Solar Energy, vol.139, pp.116-129, 2016. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02066049
Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance, Renewable Energy, vol.101, pp.526-536, 2017. ,
Application of Neural Network to One-Day-Ahead 24 hours Generating Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic System, 2007 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems, pp.1-6, 2007. ,
Comparative study of power forecasting methods for PV stations, 2010 International Conference on Power System Technology, pp.1-6, 2010. ,
A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy, Solar Energy, vol.84, issue.5, pp.807-821, 2010. ,
A Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Forecasting of PV Plant Power Output, Energies, vol.8, issue.2, pp.1138-1153, 2015. ,
Forecasting with Big Data: A Review, Annals of Data Science, vol.2, issue.1, pp.5-19, 2015. ,
ANN-based scenario generation methodology for stochastic variables of electric power systems, Electric Power Systems Research, vol.134, pp.9-18, 2016. ,
Predictive Deep Boltzmann Machine for Multiperiod Wind Speed Forecasting, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, vol.6, issue.4, pp.1416-1425, 2015. ,
Rough Deep Neural Architecture for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting, IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics, vol.13, issue.6, pp.2770-2779, 2017. ,
A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), vol.57, issue.3, pp.343-355, 2008. ,
Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregressive model, Renewable Energy, vol.72, pp.291-300, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01086935
Impact of network layout and time resolution on spatio-temporal solar forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.163, pp.329-337, 2018. ,
Improving the spatio-temporal distribution of surface solar radiation data by merging ground and satellite measurements, Remote Sensing of Environment, vol.114, issue.11, pp.2692-2704, 2010. ,
Solar irradiance forecasting using spatial-temporal covariance structures and time-forward kriging, Renewable Energy, vol.60, pp.235-245, 2013. ,
Cloud-tracking methodology for intra-hour DNI forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.102, pp.267-275, 2014. ,
Models for solar radiation prediction based on different measurement sites, Measurement, vol.63, pp.346-363, 2015. ,
Local and regional photovoltaic power prediction for large scale grid integration: Assessment of a new algorithm for snow detection, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol.20, pp.760-769, 2012. ,
Comparison of global horizontal irradiance forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models with different spatio-temporal resolutions, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol.24, issue.12, pp.1626-1640, 2016. ,
A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data, Renewable Energy, vol.87, pp.15-30, 2016. ,
Forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on artificial neural networks and data from neighboring meteorological stations, Solar Energy, vol.134, pp.119-131, 2016. ,
Short-term power load probability density forecasting based on quantile regression neural network and triangle kernel function, Energy, vol.114, pp.498-512, 2016. ,
Machine learning for solar irradiance forecasting of photovoltaic system, Renewable Energy, vol.90, pp.542-553, 2016. ,
Compressive SpatioTemporal Forecasting of Meteorological Quantities and Photovoltaic Power, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, issue.99, pp.1-1, 2016. ,
Multitime-Scale Data-Driven SpatioTemporal Forecast of Photovoltaic Generation, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, vol.6, issue.1, pp.104-112, 2015. ,
A novel ARX-based multi-scale spatio-temporal solar power forecast model, 2012 North American Power Symposium (NAPS), pp.1-6, 2012. ,
Analog method for collaborative very-short-term forecasting of power generation from photovoltaic systems, Next Generation Data Mining Summit (NGDM'11), 2011. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02278607
Probabilistic solar power forecasting in smart grids using distributed information, International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol.72, pp.16-23, 2015. ,
Generation and evaluation of space-time trajectories of photovoltaic power, Applied Energy, vol.176, pp.80-91, 2016. ,
Spatial-temporal solar power forecast through use of Gaussian Conditional Random Fields, 2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM), pp.1-5, 2016. ,
Short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of photovoltaic power production, IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, issue.99, pp.1-1, 2017. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01581946
Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation Accounting for Geographically Dispersed Information, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol.5, issue.1, pp.480-489, 2014. ,
A short-term spatiotemporal approach for Photovoltaic power forecasting, 2016 Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC), pp.1-7, 2016. ,
Very Short-Term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation #x2014; With Application to Solar Energy, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.31, issue.5, pp.3850-3863, 2016. ,
K-nearest neighbors and a kernel density estimator for GEFCom2014 probabilistic wind power forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, vol.32, issue.3, pp.1074-1080, 2016. ,
Online short-term solar power forecasting, Solar Energy, vol.83, issue.10, pp.1772-1783, 2009. ,
Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, 1986. ,
Variable Kernel Density Estimation, The Annals of Statistics, vol.20, issue.3, pp.1236-1265, 1992. ,
Kernel Smoothing, 1994. ,
Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization, 2015. ,
A bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation of functions of random variables, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol.47, issue.1, pp.49-62, 2004. ,
A fast and objective multidimensional kernel density estimation method: fastKDE, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol.101, pp.148-160, 2016. ,
Cross-validation Bandwidth Matrices for Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, vol.32, issue.3, pp.485-506, 2005. ,
Elements of information theory, 1991. ,
Quantile Regression, 2005. ,
Linear Programming and Extensions, 2007. ,
Regression Shrinkage and Selection Via the Lasso, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, vol.58, pp.267-288, 1994. ,
DOI : 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2014. ,
Non-parametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power: required properties and evaluation, Wind Energy, vol.10, issue.6, pp.497-516, 2007. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00525361
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.102, issue.477, pp.359-378, 2007. ,
DOI : 10.21236/ada459827
URL : http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a459827.pdf
Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems, Weather and Forecasting, vol.15, issue.5, pp.559-570, 2000. ,
, His research interests include statistical modeling, forecasting techniques, time series analysis, spatio-temporal regression models, and their applications to solar and wind generation modeling, Xwégnon Ghislain Agoua received a Master's degree in Statistics, 2014.