Penser nos futurs modes de vie dans les démarches de prospective énergétique : proposition d’une approche par la modélisation

Abstract : Consumerist lifestyles in industrialized countries are considered one of the main drivers of global resource use and environment degradation. Changes in these lifestyles are therefore one of the keys to achieving a sustainable future, especially as these lifestyles also tend to be pursued by some economic classes in developing countries. Yet the lifestyles issue has only marginally been considered in public policies until now, including the ones that aimed to address the challenges of energy transition and climate change mitigation. Our research was initiated in order to encourage all parties engaging with these challenges to take into account our future lifestyles in this context. To this aim, we focused on the prospective approach. It is indeed one of the tools and processes that is most commonly used to support decision-makers on the long-term challenges raised by energy transition and tackling climate change. We found that most foresight studies did not go in depth while addressing the issue of lifestyles, especially the model-based studies. Indeed, the models generally used in these studies are not thought out to allow for proper consideration of this multidimensional issue. To answer for this, we propose a conceptual framework that allows proper understanding of the lifestyle concept and clarifies its role in the energy system. As a core contribution, we developed a modelling approach to simulate lifestyle-change scenarios for France. This formal approach allows us to quantify the demands for housing, mobility, goods and services that arises in these scenarios and defines the structure of energy uses. Three scenarios for lifestyle changes are considered in this manuscript to demonstrate implementations of the proposed approach.
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  • HAL Id : tel-01887812, version 2

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Thomas Le Gallic. Penser nos futurs modes de vie dans les démarches de prospective énergétique : proposition d’une approche par la modélisation. Sciences de l'information et de la communication. PSL Research University, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PSLEM067⟩. ⟨tel-01887812v2⟩

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