Potentiels et limites météorologiques et climatiques d’un foisonnement des énergies renouvelables

Abstract : Greenhouse gas emissions are responsible of the global warming observed in recent decades. It is therefore essential today to decarbonise our way of life, the energy sector and the production of electricity in particular. Renewable energies, such as wind and photovoltaic power, have developed strongly these last years. These sources of energy have a main constraint for their development : they are intermittent and non-controllable for balancing the demand. The share of these productions becomesimportant in the electricity mix, the larger the problems of balancing the demand will become.In this PhD study, terrestrial and photovoltaic wind generation were modeled and corrected according to an homogeneous distribution of capacities across France and Europe between 1979 and 2015 according to the ERA-interim reanalysis. In a second step, a simplified model of renewable supply and the French demand balancing (MSEOD) was developed and applied during the period of the ERAinterim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. The aims of this model is to explore the potential and the limits of renewable energies balancing depending on the cost optimisation of electricity or the minimisation of volume of energy stored.During this PhD thesis, we have shown that the cost optimisation of electricity (between 186 and 194 euro / MWh according to the scenarii) leads to a low overproduction (between 10 to 20 %) with an important storage capacity (power and stored energy - between 20 and 81 hours of the average consumption), while the minimization of the maximum sizing of stored energy leads to a high overproduction (between 164 to 199 %) generating electricity costs about twice as large (between 373 and 488 euro / MWh). Despite a strong overproduction (close to 200 % of the average consumption), an additional power (destocking and thermal production) large than the average consumption is still necessary for balancing the demand during sizing meteorological events. The absence of constraint of imported powers on the network makes it possible to reduce the maximum size of stored energy by a factor of 10 as compared to the case of a self-sufficient French production. The additional power required for the balance of energy is little reduced. This work has shown that some meteorological sizing events lead to a very low renewable production at European scale. The optimal technological mix is highly wind-powered. Between 68 and 100 % of the intermittent production mix comes from wind production (depending of the scenarii and the LCOEs tested). The use of electricity production using smaller cost (60 e/MWh for photovoltaïque and 65 e/MWh for wind production), leads to an electricity cost around 100 e/MWh for a maximum storage volume corresponding to a day of the average consumption.
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Sylvain Lassonde. Potentiels et limites météorologiques et climatiques d’un foisonnement des énergies renouvelables. Climatologie. Université Paris-Saclay, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018SACLX035⟩. ⟨tel-01959254⟩

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