Uncertainty quantification in the simulation of road traffic and associated atmospheric emissions in a metropolitan area

Abstract : This work focuses on the uncertainty quantification in the modeling of road traffic emissions in a metropolitan area. The first step is to estimate the time-dependent traffic flow at street-resolution for a full agglomeration area, using a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model. Then, a metamodel is built for the DTA model set up for the agglomeration, in order to reduce the computational cost of the DTA simulation. Then the road traffic emissions of atmospheric pollutants are estimated at street resolution, based on a modeling chain that couples the DTA metamodel with an emission factor model. This modeling chain is then used to conduct a global sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential inputs in computed traffic flows, speeds and emissions. At last, the uncertainty quantification is carried out based on ensemble simulations using Monte Carlo approach. The ensemble is evaluated with observations in order to check and optimize its reliability
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Ruiwei Chen. Uncertainty quantification in the simulation of road traffic and associated atmospheric emissions in a metropolitan area. Ocean, Atmosphere. Université Paris-Est, 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018PESC1029⟩. ⟨tel-01982132⟩

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