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Formalisation d’un système de simulation pour l’évaluation de la vulnérabilité du réseau maritime

Abstract : Transportation on a global scale is due to the globalization process. Today, 90% of goods in the world are traded by sea. Maritimization is defined as a process of increased economic dependence of states on maritime traffic (Vigarié 1983). This phenomenon transforms territories, mainly the coastal areas, but also results in a territorialization of maritime spaces, which means a use and a management of maritime space for human activities. The use of this space for transportation has increased since 1970, whether through container ships or tanker (Rodrigue, Comtois, and Slack 2013). These trips have created a network which linked the locations of the ports in the world by the sea routes of shipping. However, this network extends over a vast and dynamic space, maritime space, which can generate risks for the use of space for transportation.This supply network is vulnerable to certain events (disruptions) that may affect the performance of the supply network (Achurra-Gonzalez et al., 2016): storms, shortages or maritime piracy have an influence on the efficiency of a supply network. This vulnerability is linked to several factors (Wagner and Neshat 2010): variations in supply and demand, which are economical risks, and the structure of the network and maritime space, which are geographical risks. All these can be measured and quantified by the topological, geometric and relational properties of graphs. A graph is a set of nodes connected by a link set. The graphs are used for the formalization of networks, notably transport networks (Ducruet and Lugo 2013).To test the disruptions on the characteristics of the network, a simulation system is used. In the simulations, disruptions are modeled by space-time objects having an influence on the accessibility of the vessels. Through a multi-agent system (Ferber 1997), these ships make decisions about disruptions (change of route, destination, postponement or cancellation of the trip). These individual behaviors, once aggregated by the weighting of the nodes and links of the graph, allow evaluating the topological and geometric variations which represent the influence of disruptions on the martitime network. Theses variations can be measured by indicators of the vulnerability of network (Gleyze 2005). This research allows us to improve the understanding on the influence of these disruptions on a network within a dynamic space.
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Martin Tanguy. Formalisation d’un système de simulation pour l’évaluation de la vulnérabilité du réseau maritime. Risques. Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PSLEM065⟩. ⟨tel-02020165⟩



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