Étude de la quantification des incertitudes en analyse de cycle de vie des bâtiments

Abstract : Building life cycle assessment (LCA) is a tool used to assess the environmental impact of a construction over its entire life cycle, and to help choosing the most sustainable building alternative in an ecodesign context. Many uncertainty sources arise in the environmental modelling of buildings. The aim of this thesis is to propose a methodology to take them into account and to progress towards more reliable building LCA tools. Model inputs and parameters having the most influence on the results and that should be more precisely known were identified using sensitivity analysis (SA) methods. The calculation time required for the application of these methods may be long, whereas a limited time is generally available to conduct a building LCA study. Several SA methods were therefore compared in terms of a calculation time / precision compromise. The effect of uncertainties on the choice of a built alternative was studied using SA and uncertainty analysis (UA) that are suitable in the context of variants comparison. In that way, the environmental improvements of a project are chosen at a given level of confidence and focusing on the environmental indicators for which the choice of an alternative affects the results significantly. The proposed uncertainty quantification process is applicable to the whole building life cycle and makes it possible to take into account various uncertainty sources arising in building LCA. The used methods were integrated into an ecodesign platform consisting in a dynamic building energy simulation (DBES) and an LCA tool.
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Marie-Lise Pannier. Étude de la quantification des incertitudes en analyse de cycle de vie des bâtiments. Eco-conception. PSL Research University, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PSLEM070⟩. ⟨tel-02073607v2⟩

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