Synergie des mesures pyranométriques et des images hémisphériques in-situ avec des images satellites météorologiques pour la prévision photovoltaïque

Abstract : The exploitation of solar energy raises challenges related to the variable nature of the resources involved: the incident solar irradiance. Its intermittent behavior is an is- sue for photovoltaic power plants and grid management. One of the solutions that have been widely considered is the forecast of photovoltaic production at different time horizon.The aim of this thesis is to explore new ways for improving the existing solar irradiance forecasts, for horizons ranging from the present moment to few hours, by exploiting possible synergies between pyranometric measurements, hemispherical images of the sky taken from the ground and images acquired by geostationary meteorological satellites. These two types of images have completely different spatial coverage, spatio-temporal resolutions and are taken from two different locations.The proposed approach in this thesis exploits this difference in points of view in order to geolocate the clouds in 3D by stereoscopy, which shadows’ location and motion can then be estimated and forecasted. A geometric simulator of the method has been developed to identify some of the advantages and limitations of this approach. The geolocation of clouds applied to real data made it possible to develop promising estimates and forecasts of incident solar irradiance. Finally, to complete the usual analysis of forecasting performances, two new metrics have been proposed in order to quantify two essential notions: the ability to monitor the ramps and the temporal alignment of the forecast with the measurements.
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Loïc Vallance. Synergie des mesures pyranométriques et des images hémisphériques in-situ avec des images satellites météorologiques pour la prévision photovoltaïque. Météorologie. PSL Research University, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018PSLEM064⟩. ⟨tel-02097021⟩

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