Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, Journal of Hydrology, vol.517, pp.913-922, 2014. ,
AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.141, issue.690, 2015. ,
Hydrological Validation of a Radar-Based Nowcasting Technique, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol.6, issue.4, pp.532-549, 2005. ,
{SBMcast} -An ensemble nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Lagrangian extrapolation, Journal of Hydrology, vol.404, issue.3-4, pp.226-240, 2011. ,
Geostatistical merging of rain gauge and radar data for high temporal resolutions and various station density scenarios, Journal of Hydrology, vol.508, pp.88-101, 2014. ,
Radar for hydrology: Unfulfilled promise or unrecognized potential?, Advances in Water Resources, vol.51, pp.357-366, 2013. ,
Prévision des crues au pas de temps horaire : pour une meilleure assimilation de l'information de débit dans un modèle hydrologique, vol.627, p.pp, 2010. ,
How crucial is it to account for the antecedent moisture conditions in flood forecasting? Comparison of event-based and continuous approaches on 178 catchments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.13, issue.6, pp.819-831, 2009. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00583212
Comment quantifier l'incertitude prédictive en modélisation hydrologique ?, vol.230, p.pp, 2014. ,
STEPS: A probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.132, issue.620, pp.2127-2155, 2006. ,
Distributions-Oriented Verification of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol.5, issue.3, pp.532-545, 2004. ,
Random functions and hydrology, vol.559, p.pp, 1993. ,
The Ensemble Verification System (EVS): A software tool for verifying ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables at discrete locations, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.25, issue.7, pp.854-872, 2010. ,
Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.131, issue.609, 2005. ,
Local Random Errors in Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, vol.20, issue.5, pp.752-759, 2003. ,
Ensemble flood forecasting: A review, Journal of Hydrology, vol.375, pp.613-626, 2009. ,
Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.15, issue.10, pp.3253-3274, 2011. ,
Flash flood forecasting: What are the limits of predictability?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.133, issue.622, pp.3-23, 2007. ,
Mission d'information sur les inondations dans le VAR et le sud-est de la France, 2012. ,
Statistics for spatial data, vol.900, 1993. ,
A space and time framework for analyzing human anticipation of flash floods, Journal of Hydrology, vol.482, pp.14-24, 2013. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01698829
Catchment dynamics and social response during flash floods: the potential of radar rainfall monitoring for warning procedures, Meteorological Applications, vol.16, issue.1, 2009. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00355543
Unfreezing Taylor's Hypothesis for Precipitation, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol.16, issue.6, 2015. ,
Adaptation et evaluation d'un systeme d'anticipation de crues eclair sur des bassins de montagne non-jauges, Earth Sciences, vol.262, p.pp, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00997563
Applications de la théorie des variables régionalisées dans les sciences de l'eau, vol.176, p.pp, 1976. ,
Geostatistical radar-raingauge merging: A novel method for the quantification of rain estimation accuracy, Advances in Water Resources, vol.71, pp.110-124, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01897122
PEARP, the Météo-France short-range ensemble prediction system, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.141, issue.690, 2015. ,
Ability of a dual polarized X-band radar to estimate rainfall, Advances in Water Resources, vol.32, issue.7, pp.975-985, 2009. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02594890
TBSIM: A computer program for conditional simulation of three-dimensional Gaussian random fields via the turning bands method, Computers & Geosciences, vol.32, issue.10, pp.1615-1628, 2006. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00579973
Evaluation de l'apport de la mesure de pluie par radar météorologique pour la modélisation pluie-débit de petits bassins versants, vol.274, p.pp, 2011. ,
Evaluation of the new French operational weather radar product for the field of urban hydrology, Atmospheric Research, vol.103, issue.0, pp.20-32, 2012. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00921582
Evenements Cat Nat Available at, 2016. ,
Radar for Meteorological and Atmospheric Observations, p.537, 2014. ,
Eléments d'analyse sur les crues éclair, ENGREF (AgroParisTech), p.360, 2002. ,
, Etat des connaissances récentes acquises sur les crues éclair en Europe : bilan du projet de recherches européen hydrate, 2006.
A compilation of data on European flash floods, Journal of Hydrology, vol.367, issue.1-2, pp.70-78, 2009. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00400570
Hydrological analysis of the river Aude, Journal of Hydrology, vol.286, issue.1-4, pp.135-154, 1999. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00711681
REAL-Ensemble radar precipitation estimation for hydrology in a mountainous region, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.135, issue.639, pp.445-456, 2009. ,
The Correlation Bias for Two-Dimensional Simulations by Turning Bands, Mathematical Geology, vol.31, issue.2, pp.195-211, 1999. ,
Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation, vol.483, p.pp, 1997. ,
Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, vol.129, issue.3, 2001. ,
A review of advances in flash flood forecasting, Hydrological Processes, vol.25, pp.2771-2784, 2011. ,
Monte Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications, Biometrika, vol.57, issue.1, pp.97-109, 1970. ,
Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems, Weather and Forecasting, vol.15, issue.5, 2000. ,
Retour d'expériences des crues de septembre, 2002. ,
, An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics Available, 1989.
Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system, Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol.59, issue.7, pp.1390-1402, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01470408
Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method, 2016. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01547427
Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, vol.292, 2012. ,
Loss of life due to floods, Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol.1, issue.1, pp.43-56, 2008. ,
Geostatistics for conditional simulation of ore bodies, Economic Geology, vol.69, pp.673-687, 1974. ,
Mining geostatistics, 1978. ,
Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol.9, issue.4, pp.1507-1522, 2012. ,
The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, vol.249, issue.1-4, pp.420-426, 2001. ,
Flood Hazards: Impacts and Responses for the Built Enviromment, 2011. ,
Geostatistical Simulation, Models and Algorithms, vol.256, 2002. ,
ANTILOPE V2. Note interne de la DSO, 2013. ,
Space-time simulation of intermittent rainfall with prescribed advection field: Adaptation of the turning band method, Water Resources Research, vol.49, issue.6, pp.3375-3387, 2013. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01073172
, Les crues des 11, 12 et 13 novembre 1999, dans les départements de l'Aude, l'Hérault, les Pyrennées Orientales et du Tarn, 2000.
Modélisation spatio-temporelle d'un champ de pluie : application aux pluies journalières du bassin versant de la Loire, INPG, vol.148, p.pp, 2009. ,
Variography of rainfall accumulation in presence of advection, Journal of Hydrology, vol.464, pp.494-504, 2012. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02597523
Estimation de l'incertitude de mesure des précipitations, 2000. ,
Côte d'Azur : la facture des inondations meutrières est de 605 millions d'euros. Côte d'Azur : la facture des inondations meutrières est de 605 millions, 2015. ,
Probabilistic evaluation of ensemble discharge nowcasts in two nested Alpine basins prone to flash floods, Hydrological Processes, vol.27, pp.5-17, 2013. ,
Quantitative assessment of short-term rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasts and MM5 forecasts, Hydrological Processes, vol.26, pp.3842-3857, 2012. ,
When does higher spatial resolution rainfall information improve streamflow simulation? An evaluation using 3620 flood events, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.18, issue.2, pp.575-594, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00952657
The Turning Bands Method for simulation of random fields using line generation by a spectral method, Water Resources Research, vol.18, issue.5, p.1379, 1982. ,
The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol.12, issue.4, pp.527-536, 2005. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00302614
A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. II: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.127, issue.576, pp.2095-2115, 2001. ,
Conditional Probabilities, Relative Operating Characteristics, and Relative Operating Levels, Weather and Forecasting, vol.14, issue.5, 1999. ,
Les Variables régionalisées et leur estimation, Masson et Cie, vol.307, 1965. ,
The Intrinsic Random Functions and Their Applications, Advances in Applied Probability, vol.5, issue.3, pp.439-468, 1973. ,
, CORINE Land Cover données en ligne Available at, 2016.
The Modified Turning Bands (MTB) model for space-time rainfall. III. Estimation of the storm/rainband profile and a discussion of future model prospects, Journal of Hydrology, vol.175, issue.1-4, pp.161-180, 1996. ,
Projet RHYTMME : déploiement d'un réseau de radars dédié à la Gestion des risques en territoires montagneux méditerranéens. L'eau en montagne, mieux observer pour mieux prévoir, 2011. ,
, Violents orages sur le Var et les Alpes-Maritimes Available at, 2016.
, Les radars météorologiques Available at, 2016.
, Ministère de l'écologie du développement durable des transports et du logement. 2010. Plan submersions rapides Available at
, Les inondations. Observation et statistiques Available at, 2016.
The Potential Impact of Using Persistence as a, Reference Forecast on Perceived Forecast Skill. Weather and Forecasting, vol.23, issue.5, pp.1022-1031, 2008. ,
The character and causes of flash flood occurrence changes in mountainous small basins of Southern California under projected climatic change, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol.3, pp.312-336, 2015. ,
A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.127, issue.576, pp.2069-2094, 2001. ,
What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting, Weather and Forecasting, vol.8, issue.2, 1993. ,
Flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture conditions: An assessment for gauged and ungauged basins, Journal of Hydrology, vol.362, issue.3-4, pp.274-290, 2008. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00389060
Mise à jour de la paramétrisation de la méthode AIGA, rapport d'étude Hydris, 2015. ,
Evaluation of Mekong River commission operational flood forecasts, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.18, issue.7, 2014. ,
How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction, Journal of Hydrology, vol.522, pp.697-713, 2015. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02601881
Aramis, le réseau français de radars pour la surveillance des précipitations, La Météorologie, vol.8, issue.40, pp.44-52, 2003. ,
A stochastic model for high-resolution space-time precipitation simulation, Water Resources Research, vol.49, issue.12, pp.8400-8417, 2013. ,
Intercomparaison radarpluiomètre pour l'estimation des pluies à haute résolution, 2015. ,
Note technique d'implantation d'un réseau de pluviomètres en terrain viticole sur la côte de Beaune (France), Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.5, issue.2, pp.175-186, 2001. ,
Does a large number of parameters enhance model performance? Comparative assessment of common catchment model structures on 429 catchments, Journal of Hydrology, vol.242, issue.3-4, pp.275-301, 2001. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02579565
Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.16, issue.9, pp.3419-3434, 2012. ,
Analyse de la pluviométrie sous des systèmes nuageux convectifs. Étude de cas sur des données de la ville de Marseille et de la méthode ISIS de Météo-France, LTHE, p.169, 2002. ,
Visualization of storm severity, Journal of Hydrology, vol.315, issue.1-4, pp.295-307, 2005. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00385384
From point to areal rainfall: linking the different approaches for the frequency characterisation of rainfalls in urban areas, Water Science and Technology, vol.54, issue.6-7, 2006. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00385869
Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: mission impossible?, Meteorological Applications, vol.17, issue.2, pp.223-235, 2010. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02593629
Comparing the scores of hydrological ensemble forecasts issued by two different hydrological models, Atmospheric Science Letters, vol.11, issue.2, pp.100-107, 2010. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02593630
Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area, Journal of Hydrology, vol.539, pp.237-253, 2016. ,
Toward a reliable decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: Characterizing rainfall errors using conditional simulation, Water Resources Research, vol.47, issue.11, 2011. ,
Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, 1998. ,
Ensemble streamflow forecasts over France, ECMWF Newsletter, vol.111, pp.21-27, 2007. ,
Social and Hydrological Responses to Extreme Precipitations: An Interdisciplinary Strategy for Postflood Investigation, Weather, Climate, and Society, vol.6, issue.1, 2014. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01083979
Assessing the exposure to floods to estimate the risk of flood-related damage in French Mediterranean basins, E3S Web Conferences, vol.7, p.4013, 2016. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01523878
Multivariate non-normally distributed random variables in climate research – introduction to the copula approach, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, vol.15, issue.5, pp.761-772, 2008. ,
Organization and Environmental Properties of Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems, Monthly Weather Review, vol.133, issue.4, pp.961-976, 2005. ,
Automatic Prediction of High-Resolution Daily Rainfall Fields for Multiple Extents: The Potential of Operational Radar, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol.8, issue.6, 2007. ,
A Dynamic and Spatial Scaling Approach to Advection Forecasting, Journal of Applied Meteorology, vol.42, issue.3, pp.381-388, 2003. ,
The AROME-France Convective-Scale Operational Model, Monthly Weather Review, vol.139, issue.3, pp.976-991, 2010. ,
, Hydrometeorology: Forecasting and Applications, p.355, 2010.
Combining radar and rain gauge rainfall estimates using conditional merging, Atmospheric Science Letters, vol.6, issue.1, pp.19-22, 2005. ,
Comparison of precipitation nowcasting by extrapolation and statistical-advection methods, Atmospheric Research, vol.123, pp.17-30, 2013. ,
A stochastic space-time model for intermittent precipitation occurrences, The Annals of Applied Statistics, vol.9, issue.4, pp.2110-2132, 2015. ,
The New French Operational Radar Rainfall Product, Part I: Methodology. Weather and Forecasting, vol.22, issue.3, pp.393-408, 2007. ,
, Le réseau et les produits radars de Météo-France, vol.83, 2013.
Nouvelle méthode de prévision de crue utilisant un modèle pluie-débit global, 2005. ,
Prospects for flash flood forecasting in mountainous regions -An investigation of Tropical Storm Fay in the Southern Appalachians, Journal of Hydrology, vol.506, pp.69-89, 2013. ,
Accounting for three sources of uncertainty \hack\newline in ensemble hydrological forecasting, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.20, issue.5, 2016. ,
The European Flood Alert System -Part 1: Concept and development, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol.13, issue.2, pp.125-140, 2009. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00330814
On the Impact of Short-Range Meteorological Forecasts for Ensemble Streamflow Predictions, Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol.9, issue.6, pp.1301-1317, 2008. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00357251
A nonparametric automatic blending methodology to estimate rainfall fields from rain gauge and radar data, Advances in Water Resources, vol.32, issue.7, pp.986-1002, 2009. ,
Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, vol.11, issue.5, pp.1529-1544, 2011. ,
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/meteo-00595253
Use of stochastic weather generators for precipitation downscaling, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol.1, issue.6, pp.898-907, 2010. ,
Statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Nowcasting Available at, 2011. ,
Generation of ensemble precipitation forecast from single-valued quantitative precipitation forecast for hydrologic ensemble prediction, Journal of Hydrology, vol.399, issue.3-4, pp.281-298, 2011. ,
Superposition of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains, Atmospheric Research, vol.100, issue.2-3, pp.246-262, 2011. ,