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Theses

Développement d’une méthodologie pour l’évaluation de l’incidence des variabilités interannuelles et de plus long-terme de la ressource solaire sur l’analyse de risque financier d’un projet de centrale solaire photovoltaïque

Abstract : This PhD thesis proposes to contribute to the characterization of long-term variations in irradiance, in a context of financial risk analysis of large solar photovoltaic power plants. The use of statistical indicators (e.g. P90) and the hypothesis of temporal stationarity of the irradiance has been questioned. This led to a fine characterization of the long-term variations of the irradiance thanks to a time-frequency decomposition tool developed during this thesis. We distinguished three classes of variability: intra-annual variability, annual to decadal variability, and multi-decadal variability. For the first class, the use of four years of historical data is sufficient to correctly take into account all the variations in irradiance. For the second class, the use of 30 years of historical data is recommended. For multi-decadal variability, the use of more than 30 years of data is encouraged. The three classes of variability have been analyzed for various types of databases: long-term measurements from the GEBA network, CLARA-A2 satellite data, MERRA-2 re-analysis data, and data from the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model. A great diversity of variability structures according to the database considered was observed.
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Mélodie Trolliet. Développement d’une méthodologie pour l’évaluation de l’incidence des variabilités interannuelles et de plus long-terme de la ressource solaire sur l’analyse de risque financier d’un projet de centrale solaire photovoltaïque. Energie électrique. Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2020. Français. ⟨NNT : 2020UPSLM040⟩. ⟨tel-03123362⟩

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