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Consommation de logement, parcours résidentiels et accession à la propriété en Île-de-France : une approche par la modélisation

Abstract : This thesis aims to better understand the functioning of the housing market through the study of residential trajectories and the economic trade-offs of households in the Paris Region (Île-de-France). We seek to analyse the consumption of housing services and the choice of occupancy status, and how these evolve according to the demographic (progress through the life cycle, generation) and economic (income, price level) situations of the household. This double prism of study - demographic and economic - leads us to develop an analysis over a long period of time, from 30 to 50 years depending on the available data. Beyond revealing both life-cycle effects and intergenerational changes, this long-term perspective allows us to understand if the last two decades, which have seen a sharp rise in property prices in the Paris Region, have marked a break in households' residential choices. The first chapter uses census data to analyse the residential pathways of Île-de-France residents by comparing changes in household and housing demographics over half a century and the resulting matches. The results describe a strong increase in surface comforts - resulting from a scissor effect between a decline in household size and an increase in housing size - and in home ownership, followed by a stabilisation of residential trajectories for recent generations. Based on the observation of a continuous increase in surface comfort over the last five decades, the second chapter seeks to measure whether this increase has led to a reduction in inequalities in housing conditions. On the contrary, our results show that inequalities in surface comfort are generally increasing, while the gaps between occupations and socio-professional categories remain stable. Recent generations also seem to be less advantaged than baby boomers in regards to average comfort conditions experienced. In order to explain these residential trajectories in the light of market conditions and the resulting economic trade-offs of households, chapter three discusses the measurement of housing costs according to the different occupancy statuses, in particular for owner-occupied housing through the notion of user cost. It then uses housing surveys to describe changes in housing costs in the private housing stock and the expenditure of households in the Paris Region since the early 1970s. Finally, the last chapter examines the trade-offs made by private rented sector households, and in particular whether these have changed when confronted with the sharp rise in prices in the 2000s, using an econometric model over the period 1980-2013. The results indicate an increase in the effort rate of first-time buyers, a fall in the demand for housing services and a decline in first-time buyers over the recent period. Taken as a whole, the results of the thesis describe a very inertial French residential model, based on accessing large owner-occupied dwellings through the life cycle. The model set out here is put under pressure by the segregative nature of home ownership and the rising housing costs, which undermine the upward residential pathways of recent generations
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Submitted on : Tuesday, February 2, 2021 - 2:31:17 PM
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Vincent Lasserre-Bigorry. Consommation de logement, parcours résidentiels et accession à la propriété en Île-de-France : une approche par la modélisation. Géographie. Université Paris-Est, 2020. Français. ⟨NNT : 2020PESC1017⟩. ⟨tel-03128783⟩



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