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Analyse multifractale utilisant le taux de précipitations dans cas de typhon en 2012, Corée

Abstract : The main goal of this thesis is develop a new multifractal nowcasting approach based on radar data, particularly for extreme events. Whereas the previous attempts where based on scalar cascades focused on the rain rate, this thesis will take into account the vector velocity field (and its multifractal variability, e.g. of its horizontal divergence), as well the terrain complexity and the consequent orographic effects. It will take hold on recent development of multivariate multifractal techniques (Schertzer and Tchiguirinskaia, 2015) that makes theoretically possible to represent together the advecting velocity field and the advected scalar field. However, there are still large uncertainties on the choice of the adequate class of models and their parameters, comparison with mesoscale models will be therefore quite helpful. The first stage of this thesis will be devoted to drastically reduce these uncertainties with the help of empirical data analyses, as well as possible theoretical insights (e.g. connectivity properties) and comparison with mesoscale models (e.g. selected key mechanism). The second stage will be devoted to develop and test a concrete nowcasting procedure based on these findings and attempting to use at best the radar data (including their Doppler information) and numerical weather prediction products.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, February 9, 2021 - 5:39:08 PM
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Jisun Lee. Analyse multifractale utilisant le taux de précipitations dans cas de typhon en 2012, Corée. Ingénierie de l'environnement. Université Paris-Est; Institute of Fisheries Science (Corée (République)), 2020. Français. ⟨NNT : 2020PESC1007⟩. ⟨tel-03136520⟩



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