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Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk

Abstract : The increase of the share of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix raises issues related to the predictability of electricity production. Especially, at the seasonal scale, the transmission system operators (TSOs) are required to make projections of the availability of means of production as well as to predict the consumption in order to guarantee the security of energy supply during the coming winter or summer. However, current projections are mainly based on historical data (climatology) of temperatures (consumption), wind speed (wind energy production), or solar radiation (photovoltaic production). The thesis presents 4 studies: three within the framework of seasonal forecasts, and one study on the realism of the surface wind speed modelled by the Numerical Weather Prediction model of the European Center of Medium-range Weather Forecasts.If the wind energy forecasts at short timescales going from the minute to several days as well as the wind trends at climatic scale have been thoroughly studied, forecasts of wind energy at the intermadiate scale going from a fortnight to the seasonal horizon have recieved little attention. Predictability at midlatitude and at those long term horizons is indeed still an open question. However, several studies have shown that Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) are able to bring valuable information on the large scale atmospheric circulation via the forecast of large scale atmospheric oscillations such as ENSO in the Pacific region, or the NAO in the North Atlantic. It has also been demonstrated that these oscillations have a strong influence on precipitations, temperatures, and surface wind speed.Building the relation between such indicators of the large scale atmospheric circulation and the surface wind speed in France allows to take into account the interannual variability of the surface wind speed, which is not the case of climatology by construction. This is the idea developed in the three studies concerning the seasonal forecasts. In order to forecast the wind energy ressource at the seasonal scale, two probabilistic models are proposed. A parametric model based on the forecast of the surface wind speed seasonal distribution at different location in France estimated by the theorical Weibull distribution ; and another non-parametric based on the estimation of the daily surface wind speed distribution knowing the state of the atmosphere. The third study propose to reconstruct the joint probability of the French national consumption and production, allowing to measure the risk of imbalance between supply and demand.
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Submitted on : Monday, June 14, 2021 - 12:44:19 PM
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Bastien Alonzo. Seasonal forecasting of wind energy resource and production in France and associated risk. Meteorology. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2018. English. ⟨NNT : 2018SACLX062⟩. ⟨tel-03259610⟩



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