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Approche intégrée pour l'analyse prospective de la décarbonisation profonde du système électrique européen à l'horizon 2050 face à la variabilité climatique

Abstract : Electricity undeniably holds a predominant place in modern societies. It is one of the engines of economic growth and countless end uses depend on the flow of electrons. Faced with the challenges of climate change, various medium- and long-term objectives serve to guide political action towards the decarbonization of the predominantly fossil fuel-based electricity production mix. The evolution of the European mix in particular is marked by the integration of a growing share of intermittent renewable resources. The strong climatic dependence of this mode of production, destined to grow in the future, nevertheless raises questions about the operation of the power system. How will the strong interdependence between interconnected systems evolve in the face of the variable geographical distribution of intermittent generation? What are the flexibility/cooperation needs associated with this evolution? To what extent could climate uncertainty impact long-term objectives? Through prospective modeling of energy systems, it is possible to identify, over a finite time horizon and under various constraints, an optimal architecture of commodity flows and technologies (current and future) leading to the satisfaction of final demand at minimum total cost. In the context of interconnected systems and including renewable generation, this long-term exploration is made more complex due to climate variability and various forms of induced uncertainties. This thesis is part of the Clim2Power project gathering 12 research teams across Europe and aiming at translating climate projection data into operational data for the different actors of the power sector. We are developing a new bottom-up optimization model of the European electricity system (eTIMES-EU). It provides a detailed description of its infrastructure and its intra-day operation, which is used to discuss its long-term evolution. Through it, we propose an original approach to address the impact of climate variability on electricity demand, solar, wind and hydro resources in contrasting scenarios for the European electricity mix until 2050. These scenarios, formulated around different levels of commitment to decarbonisation, integrate assumptions on future demand levels, technology availability, use of interconnections and national policies regarding coal and nuclear resources. In addition, we propose a numerical approach that addresses multi-regional problem solving. It allows, thanks to Lagrangian relaxation, to deal with equivalent sub-problems that are easier to solve and provides a heuristic in the resolution of the global problem.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, June 30, 2021 - 1:48:10 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 17, 2021 - 12:31:41 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-03274729, version 1


Gildas Siggini. Approche intégrée pour l'analyse prospective de la décarbonisation profonde du système électrique européen à l'horizon 2050 face à la variabilité climatique. Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]. Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2021. Français. ⟨NNT : 2021UPSLM010⟩. ⟨tel-03274729⟩



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