HAL will be down for maintenance from Friday, June 10 at 4pm through Monday, June 13 at 9am. More information
Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Theses

Modélisation et optimisation de la prise de décision pour la gestion de maladies infectieuses se propageant sur des réseaux de métapopulations animales

Abstract : This thesis focuses on the modeling and optimisation of the control of a pathogen spreading in a livestock metapopulation via a trade network, taking into account the decision processes concerning the adoption of control measures.On the one hand, regarding farmers' decision-making, a stochastic model integrating the intra-herd disease dynamics (demographic components and trade network) and the dynamics of farmers’ decisions was developed and explored through intensive simulations and sensitivity analyses. In particular, a dynamic decision-mechanism that accounts for farmers’ random behaviour, their learning and strategic imitation dynamics was proposed. The model was formalised for a theoretical infection dynamics (SIR model), and a specific control measure (vaccination). This first model was extended and adapted to a real-life disease, BVD (bovine viral diarrhoea), where both the pathogen spread and the exchange of information between farmers can occur through the trade network, but also through a geographical neighbourhood.On the other hand, from a more general perspective, it was assumed that a central social planner sought to dynamically and optimally allocate a limited resource among the different sub-populations of a given metapopulation network, in order to reduce pathogen spread. The approach, based on scores allowing to rank subpopulations for resource allocation, was formalised for the theoretical epidemiological model considered in the first part of the thesis, for two different measures (vaccination and treatment).New scores were obtained by adapting a greedy optimisation approach to the metapopulation framework. Through simulations, the performances of these new scores were compared to those of several heuristics that might be appropriate when the metapopulation network corresponds to an animal trade network.
Document type :
Theses
Complete list of metadata

https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-03663416
Contributor : Abes Star :  Contact
Submitted on : Tuesday, May 10, 2022 - 10:39:18 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, May 12, 2022 - 3:42:52 AM

File

107562_CRISTANCHO_FAJARDO_2022...
Version validated by the jury (STAR)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : tel-03663416, version 1

Citation

Lina Cristancho Fajardo. Modélisation et optimisation de la prise de décision pour la gestion de maladies infectieuses se propageant sur des réseaux de métapopulations animales. Statistiques [math.ST]. Université Paris-Saclay, 2022. Français. ⟨NNT : 2022UPASB008⟩. ⟨tel-03663416⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

0

Files downloads

0